How Moscow Will Respond to Britain's Expulsion of Russian Diplomats
Britain's soft spot in Russia is BP. Watch for Russia's response to today's expulsion announcement not only in a predictable tit-for-tat removal of British diplomats from Moscow, but in a tougher line toward the British oil giant.
In the past, Britain's Russia policy has been led by the requirements of BP, its largest publicly held company. And BP has walked softly with Moscow from the time of the Soviet collapse. In the 1990s, BP opposed the U.S.-backed Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, until it decided that its U.S. interests -- its wish to purchase Arco -- trumped its plans for the former Soviet Union. The British government walked lock-step with BP in the anti-, then abruptly pro-pipeline policies.
In the past few months, BP, like some of the other multinational oil companies, has buckled under to Moscow; they have had to because of the much more challenging global exploration environment. So it is that BP has provided cover to a Russian "auction" of a Yukos property by making a "bid" on it; and it has surrendered its rights to the Kovykta natural gas field.
In expelling four Russian diplomats, Britain has taken a principled stand on the Litvinenko murder case. A component of Moscow's calibrations is likely to take note that a quarter of the global production of Britain's marquee company -- BP -- comes from Russia. That is where President Putin is likely to pressure Britain.
In the past, Britain's Russia policy has been led by the requirements of BP, its largest publicly held company. And BP has walked softly with Moscow from the time of the Soviet collapse. In the 1990s, BP opposed the U.S.-backed Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, until it decided that its U.S. interests -- its wish to purchase Arco -- trumped its plans for the former Soviet Union. The British government walked lock-step with BP in the anti-, then abruptly pro-pipeline policies.
In the past few months, BP, like some of the other multinational oil companies, has buckled under to Moscow; they have had to because of the much more challenging global exploration environment. So it is that BP has provided cover to a Russian "auction" of a Yukos property by making a "bid" on it; and it has surrendered its rights to the Kovykta natural gas field.
In expelling four Russian diplomats, Britain has taken a principled stand on the Litvinenko murder case. A component of Moscow's calibrations is likely to take note that a quarter of the global production of Britain's marquee company -- BP -- comes from Russia. That is where President Putin is likely to pressure Britain.
