It's Official: The Caspian is a Terrorist Target

The surprise isn't that terrorists appear to be responsible for an explosion that has shut down the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, and sent world oil prices up. It's that no such attack occurred earlier in the Caspian Sea region.

On Tuesday, a pump near the eastern Turkish town of Refahiye blew up. The thousand-mile pipeline, which connects the Caspian and Mediterranean seas and ships a million barrels of oil a day, could be shut for two weeks.

A Kurdish rebel group known as the PKK says it's responsible for the explosion.

If accurate, the attack underlines the vast target presented by the energy infrastructure that's gone up on both sides of the Caspian, and on into Turkey, since the 1991 Soviet collapse.

During the 11 years I lived on the Caspian, I frequently asked oilmen and diplomats about any precautions being undertaken to prevent terrorism, say, at the Tengiz and Kashagan oilfields in Kazakhstan, and the offshore Baku fields in Azerbaijan. After all, the Caspian is just north of Afghanistan and Pakistan, with all that implies. These fields currently export about 1.3 million barrels of oil a day, and the volume will increase to about 4 million barrels a day in about a decade or so.

I never got back anything but blank stares. I assumed that meant the threat was understood, but that no one was going to discuss preventive measures in place.

But this week's blast makes me wonder. BP deliberately built the pipeline underground, mostly to prevent the siphoning off of oil by thieves, and to forestall attacks by the various militant groups that populate the Caucasus and Turkey.

The vulnerable spots were always the eight pump stations along the route -- they are completely in the open. NATO and the U.S. had sent trainers to help assemble a strong protective force for the entire infrastructure, and I had assumed they were particularly concentrated at the pump stations.

Security may be particularly tight at the stations. But the apparent attack shows that the infrastructure remains vulnerable.

Tipping Point in Pakistan? Musharraf's Military Support Cracks

If you're a Pakistani strongman, it's not wonderful but it is survivable to lose the support of the judges and lawyers. But it's quite another to be challenged by your fellow former generals.

That's President Pervez Musharraf's current predicament, and if he doesn't do something about it, we are observing his political demise. With the steady Talibanization of the nation's northwest, the military brass will put its ultimate loyalty first -- to Pakistan's survival -- and force Musharraf out.

Carlotta Gall and Salman Masood of The New York Times weigh in with a piece today on a startlingly public demand for Musharraf's resignation by several hundred retired senior military officers. As a measure of the discontent, the retired generals among yesterday's protesters included Jamshed Gulzar Kiani, the former commander of the key Army corps in Rawalpindi.

Their outburst -- their third in two weeks -- is an important turn of events because of how the Pakistan military operates. This ultimate bedrock of Pakistani power is discreet and united. Serving and retired officers are an organic whole, sort of a society, listening to and advising each other. They regard themselves as Pakistan's fundament. When the officers decide the country's integrity is threatened, you get a government overturned.

That the retirees have gone public means that that military society has become disfunctional; Musharraf has stopped listening to the retirees. If he's stopped listening to the retirees, it's probably the same to one degree or another with serving officers.

So far, Pakistan's serving generals have been content to stay behind the scenes and allow Musharraf to rule unimpeded. But if the contagion spreads, and Musharraf can't keep his base on side, he is finished.

Photo: pingnews.com
Rights: Creative Commons

Terror at the Serena: An Eye-Witness Account

I’ve received an email from a diplomat friend passing along a riveting, eye-witness account of Monday’s terrorist attack on Kabul’s ultra-popular luxury Serena Hotel, where Afghans, diplomats, journalists, NGO employees, and military tend to gather. Seven people were killed. This blog tries to keep it short, but because of its uniqueness I publish the letter in its entirety. I had omitted the writer's name but, as noted on Barney Rubin's blog, Naser Shahelemi is fine about going public.

It was 5:30 PM and I was wrapping up my day in the office. My cousin, my office manager and me decided to head off to the Serena Hotel for a classy 5-star dinner, a rare commodity in Kabul. My two drivers were out driving the employees home and so my cousin decided to drive and we left without a driver which may have saved their lives.

We arrived at Serena Hotel, on the outside gate. The same friendly faces, all 4-6 guards posted outside, one a good friendly face, Aghai Sultan, always gives me a friendly wave and waves my car in after checking the vehicle.

Everything smooth, and everything is normal. We walk to the restaurant section and they have not yet set up the final buffet. The friendly hostess tells me we need 15 minutes. I look at my cousin and I say come on let’s take a walk until things are set up. I head back walk into the lobby see a few friendly faces. I sat down in the lobby a few minutes, and my cousin said hey let’s wait here until until it's time. Then I remembered the nice teahouse on the left side of the Serena called the Chai Khana. So we went for a quick cup of tea in the Chai Khana.

We sat down, tea in hand and then it began. All of sudden BOOM! A suicide bomber dressed as police had walked into the security x-ray booth with a vest of explosives attached on his chest and blew himself up, killing half of the guards in the booth. The windows began shaking. I quickly think hey that was a bomb but the Serena glass is thick so we don’t know if it's close or far. Usually a bomb like that I would estimate was 5 blocks away then all of a sudden BOOM again and then rapid gunfire. The guards killed 1 attacker and but two more got inside the main lobby of the Serena.

Everyone gets up, and starts getting back into a slip door that connects to a 2nd lounge. I quickly move looking around thinking very quick anything could happen. I don’t hear anything. I walk back to the original spot I was in looking for some signal of what was happening. I look through the glass outside and see a Corolla turn and wrap to the front of the Serena door, and then the driver jumps outs and throws himself on the ground. The Corolla hits the wall of the front glass doors. Then I just hear hundreds of bullets shooting. I hit the ground because the bullets at this point sound extremely close to me. I start crawling through the Chai Khana on my knees and I get back to the 2nd lounge in the slip door.

The Serena worker is quickly telling me to move and get to the basement as soon as possible. Grenades are being thrown and the lobby is covered in a thick smoke that no one can see. I hear more explosions. 1 Serena employee is being carried past me covered in blood by two other Serena employees. His hand is covered in blood. His face is covered in blood. I am hearing gunshots in the lobby, the terrorists have infiltrated the lobby and are now shooting anyone.

I turn on the afterburners and start cutting up the hall following a trail of blood leading to the basement. Everyone is running as fast as possible. I lost my cousin in this mess. I get down two flights of steps in the secure basement of the Serena where I see him. We greet each other, and I check to see he isn’t injured. I asked him are you ok? He is fine. We quickly move to the deeper portion of the basement. Among us is the Norwegian foreign minister, and his security contingent. Also there is the UN Human Rights activist Sima Samar, also a former Women’s Minister of the Karzai Administration. We get in the cafeteria and more Afghan politicians are among us, with Europeans and foreigners. Karzai’s oldest brother is also trapped with us and he is pacing frantically as we are unaware of what is going on in the lobby. We can hear shots and we can hear booms, but the remaining security personnel is posted at the doors and is ready to shoot at will.

More people come to the basement, as the terrorists have infiltrated the gym and spa area. They have shot dead the spa manager, Zina, a very pleasant Filipino girl who was just doing her job working in Afghanistan to support herself and her family abroad. The terrorists move into the gym and shoot an American dead in the face on the treadmill. The president of the Olympics, Mr. Anwar Khan Jekdalek, was in the locker room getting dressed when a terrorist came face to face with him. Mr. Jekdalek asked him in Persian, "Khaireyaat kho ast? (Is everything ok?)," and then he turned his gun and took a shot at the president of the Olympics. Mr. Jekdalek made an Olympic dive and fled, and quickly found refuge in some space in the locker room where the terrorist couldn't find him. He escaped to the basement through another pass.

The doorman was carried down to the basement by Serena staff. He had passed out from all of the events he saw, and they were opening up his vest to get him air and began sprinkling water on his face. Then all of sudden a bunch of Serena employees started running down the hall in the basement like they were being chased. This in turn caused two Russian girls to start screaming, and made everyone start to hide including President Karzai's oldest brother. What could you do, what would you do if you knew people were coming to shoot you? Turns out the terrorists had not infiltrated the basement, and the Russian girls had to be calmed down, and were given cigarettes to relax.

Hours pass, and we are all sitting and reminiscing about what the hell just happened in front of our eyes, who and what we saw. Then all of a sudden two U.S. Marines come down to the basement armed to the teeth, asking everyone if they are all right. We were kind of relieved to see the Marines. The Marines then called out for all US Citizens and they took me, and about 10 other people out including my cousin whom I told the Marines was with me. They said fine, but let’s move. We started moving with the Marines out the basement, guns drawn coming upstairs through the same hall I ran down. There was a pool a blood where I was standing before when everything began and now there was blood everywhere in the lobby, broken glass, black walls from the bomb blasts. Hundreds of Afghan Secret Service and NDS guards were standing around. The US Marines got us out and put us in armored vehicles and took us to the embassy where they treated us, took reports and gave us medical checkups.

They later released us, and my driver and guards came and picked us up in another car and we went home. Next day I came to get the Land Cruiser I left parked at the entrance of the door when the bomb went off.

The Amniyat (Afghan CIA) asked us some questions then let us go. I looked at my car, I couldn't believe what I saw. Blood, guts, black marks from the bomb blast everywhere. The Land Cruiser from behind was filled with bullet holes. The 2^nd suicide bomber had detonated himself 5 meters away from the car once he got inside and his finger ended up in the back of my Land Cruiser, and his thumb was on my dashboard. I peered inside the back of the Land Cruiser through the broken glass and saw the finger. I am not at all accustomed to seeing those types of gruesome items up-close. It was pretty damn disgusting. The lack of respect for their lives was proven in this heinous crime.

This whole thing has me really spooked. Now the Taliban are vowing more attacks on Kabul restaurants where foreigners and expatriates are gathering. I am unsure what to make of all these tragic events. However the situation in Kabul is obviously deteriorating.

Pakistan: It's About Power, Not Terrorism

For six years, the West has turned to Pakistan's General Musharraf to maintain stability in the world's laboratory of extremist Islamic terror. Events in Pakistan have rippled west and northwest to Afghanistan and Central Asia, to Europe all the way to Great Britain, and throughout the Middle East.

Now, Musharraf appears to be on the political ropes, with one of his main adversaries about to arrive at Islamabad Airport, and the other right behind him.

So should the West worry? The answer is yes and no -- for those worried about Pakistan itself, politics is about to revert to its venal and stormy norm; but nothing is likely to change in the national security sphere.

In a piece just filed on line, my friend Zahid Hussain of The Times of London says that Musharraf will try to defuse the arrival tomorrow (Monday) of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan by putting him right back on a military plane to Saudi Arabia. Here is the first paragraph of Zahid's piece: Pakistani authorities are expected to deport Nawaz Sharif, the exiled former Prime Minister, back to Saudi Arabia as soon as he returns to Pakistan tomorrow in a bid to topple President Pervez Musharraf. Read story

Steve's comment: There is very little chance that Musharraf will salvage his position; he will have to step out of politics, opening the way for a political rematch between the country's pair of two-time prime ministers -- Sharif and Benazir Bhutto.

So much for the experiment with political reform that Musharraf claimed to be initiating with his 1999 coup against Sharif after the then-prime minister effectively almost murdered him and a planeload of passengers by refusing an airliner carrying them landing rights in the country.

The current degree of absurdity is illustrated by the industrialist Sharif's almost unchallenged depiction of himself as a fighter for democratic ideals. Few seem to recall Sharif's political beginnings as a 1980s creation of the ISI, the country's intelligence agency. Having lost favor with the Army since that impolite treatment of Musharraf in 1999, he is now painting himself as a man of the people.

Politics aside, Pakistan's bulwark of stability -- the Army -- will certainly salvage itself, with or without Musharraf (I think without). Washington and the rest of the West will continue to have their partner, to the degree Pakistan has been one, in fighting the al Qaeda radicals using Waziristan as a base.