Putin: Still in Pursuit of Respect

How far will Vladimir Putin push his rejection of Kosovo independence? My own feeling is not very. And even if he does go through with his implicit threat -- to recognize breakaway regions of his favorite punching bag, Western ally Georgia -- Russia and perhaps Belarus will probably be the only nations to do so.

President Bush has announced U.S. recognition of Kosovo, which unilaterally declared independence yesterday. The largest European countries are likely to follow. Why? Because of Serbia's murderous rampage through Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

Putin asserts that territorial integrity is supreme and that, in order to create a separate nation, the country from which it is separating must approve. As an example, he cites the two Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both of which pulled away during the early 1990s when nationalism was sweeping through the former Soviet Union.

There are only academic and polemical links between these Georgian regions and Kosovo.

I covered the Abkhaz fighting from both sides. While there was brutality, the scale nowhere approached Serbia's pathological violence against its neighbors. And in the end, in 1993, it was the Abkhaz -- backed by Moscow -- who applied ethnic cleansing after vowing not to. They simply put the Georgians in their midst on foot out of the seaside region, and occupied their homes.

One thing I learned from my time in the former Soviet Union is that pride is king when it comes to nationalities. No one wants to feel he or she are under anyone's thumb. In the case of the Abkhaz and the Ossets, the Georgians stirred the pot with their own nationalism. Then the Russians came in with military backing, which continues to this day.

What are Putin's and Russia's genuine beef? That their view isn't accepted in the West. Ultimately, that isn't very compelling. Putin will no doubt continue to protest. And, regarding Georgia as the West's soft underbelly because of the energy pipelines running through the republic and the West's backing for President Mikheil Saakashvili, he'll keep punching there.

Photo: C+H
Rights: Creative Commons

Hummer Humor and Russia in Serbia

Leanan over at The Oil Drum, who never sleeps, has some interesting posts. One is on a Russian Hummer owner with a sense of humor. A second provides insight into Russia's support for Serbia's position opposing Kosovo independence.

Hummer Humor: Reuters reports that a Russian owner of a $49,500 Hummer is inviting anti-consumerists to vent their anger on his vehicle, specifically by pelting it with rotten eggs and tomatoes. This unidentified Good Samaritan is said to live in the Russian city of St. Petersburg. The back story is that a local activist group calling itself "Peter Antiglobalist" has been in a naturally difficult search for a Hummer owner willing to undergo food abuse. The good-natured fellow who responded plans to sell the food-decorated vehicle, and donate the proceeds to an orphanage, according to the report. I have to say that this is a difficult story to believe. However, as post-Christmas Day entertainment, I shall list it in the category of, "If it isn't true, it ought to be."

Russia in Serbia: For some eight years, Russia has supported Serbia's position that Kosovo is an integral part of it, and opposed independence for the majority ethnic-Albanian region. Moscow says its position is rooted in the principle of territorial integrity: If Kosovo can unilaterally pull away absent Belgrade's agreement, Russia argues, then what about the separatist Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, for instance? Mightn't they see Kosovo as a green light to declare independence too? I've argued that Russia is throwing up an empty rhetorical threat. Abkhazia and South Ossetia perfectly serve Russia's purposes as they are, as an instrument for needling neighboring Georgia, which Russia loves to hate.

Now the other shoe drops. UPI reports today that Russia wants to take control of Serbia's state oil company, called NIS. Russia is offering $1.5 billion in cash and other incentives, plus access to its planned South Stream natural gas pipeline. There's nothing wrong about mixing politics and economics -- that's how the world works. But it does make Russia's position clearer.

Photo: Morgan Tepsic
Rights: Creative Commons