What Plane?

There has been silence from both Tbilisi and Moscow in the days since Georgia claimed it shot down a Russian military aircraft. The upshot: The two disputatious neighbors have taken the sensible route away from confrontation, which is -- pretend nothing happened.

Steve's comment: Last weekend, it looked like tension could rise considerably between Georgia and Russia after Georgia claimed it had shot at the jet on Aug. 23. Georgia said it saw the plane go down and then a fire erupt in an isolated part of the forest, possibly in Georgia proper, and possibly in the breakaway Black Sea region of Abkhazia.

There was concern because it is one thing to claim that Russia has violated one's airspace -- which Georgia has done with some regularity -- and quite another to shoot down that violator.

There were the usual Russian denials and Georgian vows to prove what they said. Since then, however, both sides have held fire.

The only one talking a bit has been Abkhazia, which says it, too, saw something in the sky and a fire. The verdict? Space debris, say the Abkhaz.

Good enough.

Did Georgia Shoot Down A Russian Plane?

Georgia says there is a fire in a thick, isolated section of forest in the north of the country. That's relevant because the country's interior minister also said a few hours ago that the Georgian military fired on an aircraft that it believed to be Russian. A search may start tomorrow to determine the source of the fire. So far Russia says it is missing no planes. The upshot: If it is a Russian military aircraft, there will probably be a significant escalation of tensions in the already much-strained relationship between the two neighbors.

Here is the top of the Reuter's story: Georgian forces fired at a plane they believed was Russian after it violated the Caucasus republic's airspace on Wednesday, a senior interior ministry official said. The incident marks an intensification of a row between the two countries in which Georgia has accused Russian planes of violating its border and of dropping a missile near Tbilisi. Russia called the Georgian statement a provocation. It has not reported any plane missing, and when asked specifically about the Georgian statement an official denied Russian aircraft had violated Georgian airspace. Rest of story.

Steve's comment: Russia and Georgia have had a tense relationship since the Soviet breakup. Under Eduard Shevardnadze, Georgia was dismembered when Russia backed separatists in the Black Sea region of Abkhazia, which used Moscow's sophisticated military to successfully break away.

More recently, Georgia has accused Moscow of a few violations of Georgian air space, including the firing of a missile. Western inspectors traveled to Georgia and backed up its claim about the missile.

Russia has been enraged by the charge, and the western position toward it. But if Georgia actually shot down one of Russia's planes, that could change the complexion of the tension. Russia's Putin stands almost entirely on a nationalistic platform of toughness bordering on belligerence toward the outside world. If it is indeed what the Georgians suggest, that will color his response.