Steve LeVine covers foreign affairs for BusinessWeek. He previously was correspondent for Central Asia and the Caucasus for The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for 11 years. His first book, The Oil and the Glory, a history of the former Soviet Union through the lens of oil, was published in October 2007. Putin’s Labyrinth, his new book, profiles Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians. It was released this week.

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A Blog on Russia, Central Asia and
the Caucasus

Thursday, August 7, 2008

It's Official: The Caspian is a Terrorist Target

The surprise isn't that terrorists appear to be responsible for an explosion that has shut down the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, and sent world oil prices up. It's that no such attack occurred earlier in the Caspian Sea region.

On Tuesday, a pump near the eastern Turkish town of Refahiye blew up. The thousand-mile pipeline, which connects the Caspian and Mediterranean seas and ships a million barrels of oil a day, could be shut for two weeks.

A Kurdish rebel group known as the PKK says it's responsible for the explosion.

If accurate, the attack underlines the vast target presented by the energy infrastructure that's gone up on both sides of the Caspian, and on into Turkey, since the 1991 Soviet collapse.

During the 11 years I lived on the Caspian, I frequently asked oilmen and diplomats about any precautions being undertaken to prevent terrorism, say, at the Tengiz and Kashagan oilfields in Kazakhstan, and the offshore Baku fields in Azerbaijan. After all, the Caspian is just north of Afghanistan and Pakistan, with all that implies. These fields currently export about 1.3 million barrels of oil a day, and the volume will increase to about 4 million barrels a day in about a decade or so.

I never got back anything but blank stares. I assumed that meant the threat was understood, but that no one was going to discuss preventive measures in place.

But this week's blast makes me wonder. BP deliberately built the pipeline underground, mostly to prevent the siphoning off of oil by thieves, and to forestall attacks by the various militant groups that populate the Caucasus and Turkey.

The vulnerable spots were always the eight pump stations along the route -- they are completely in the open. NATO and the U.S. had sent trainers to help assemble a strong protective force for the entire infrastructure, and I had assumed they were particularly concentrated at the pump stations.

Security may be particularly tight at the stations. But the apparent attack shows that the infrastructure remains vulnerable.

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