Pickering is Out; What about Zbig?

Thomas Pickering, the senior U.S. statesman who was to lead the high-level U.S. pipeline campaign on the Caspian, has withdrawn for unspecified reasons. So the State Department has resumed its search for a supergiant diplomat to turn around the so-far struggling Western effort to blunt Russia's dominance of the European natural gas market.

On its face it's a market issue -- the control of natural gas pipelines stretching from Turkmenistan to Europe. But it also has geopolitical ramifications. If Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan can export their natural gas only through Russia, that would give Moscow enormous continued leverage over the east Caspian. And if Russia continues to control a third or more of the European natural gas market, some in the European Union fear, it could leverage that into more political influence.

What has resulted is competing pipeline strategies. Russia is well along the way to building a set of three pipelines -- one from Turkmenistan north to Russia; a second to northern Europe called Nord Stream; and a third to southern Europe called South Stream. The West's response is only on paper -- a trans-Caspian pipeline from Turkmenistan west to Turkey; and a pipeline from there to Europe called Nabucco.

So the State Department has sought to super-charge the Western effort with an eminence grise like Pickering, who currently consults for Boeing. With Pickering out, who are the remaining giants?

What about Zbigniew Brzezinski? There's no doubt about his credentials, stature and ability to get the job done. I have no idea whether Brzezinski would agree. But I'm told that such an appointment would have the unusual virtue of driving both Russia and the Bush administration insane, seeing as both have been his targets.

But the question again comes down to priorities. Are we talking politics or effectiveness?

Until then, I'm told that Undersecretary of State Reuben Jeffery will fill in, and that long-time regional expert Steven Mann will take his post as No. 2 in the Caspian envoy's office.

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Rights: Creative Commons

Note on Yesterday's Post on the Pipeline War

I received a couple of warranted complaints about yesterday's description of a delay within the Bush administration in naming a top envoy to direct the U.S. side of the West's pipeline war with Russia. As background, I've complimented the choice of gray beard Thomas Pickering as Washington's chief envoy for the Caspian. Steve Mann, another talented senior diplomat, would be his deputy. But I've not understood why these men aren't already in the field making the case for a western-directed, trans-Caspian pipeline for Turkmenistan gas. Yesterday I reported that an 11th-hour struggle over personnel was partly to blame. Specifically I reported that Dan Fried, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for European affairs, was trying to get one of his deputies into the envoy's slot.

Fried rightly notes that I didn't offer him a chance to respond, and I regret that. Today Fried said the following in a telephone chat: "I think it's a great idea to have a senior person doing it, and he will be most effective if there is a team representing all the bureaus, economic, mine. (Under Secretary of State for Economics and Energy) Ruben Jeffrey should also be involved. We should get that team together and get them to work." On why there is a holdup, he said, "I'd like to do this as soon as someone identified is in place. The sooner the better is best."

Fried couldn't say so, but I'm still told that Pickering is headed into the top slot. I'm also told that there's a cat fight over who will be his deputy, including a turf war between the State Department and the National Security Council.

While the bureaucrats tussle over the details, they risk Russia gaining greater advantage.

Behr-dee-mukh-uh-MEH'-duv in the White House

In the 1990s or earlier, some knuckle-head who couldn't get his (or her) arms around Central Asia nicknamed it the 'Stans as a catchall for all five of the previously little-known nations. At times the monniker even crossed the Caspian and embraced Azerbaijan, which while also a Muslim Turkic nation technically is part of the Caucasus. The stab at a cutism, however, I think helped ordinary outsiders digest these new nations as places distinct from, say, Russia. And the rest is history -- Kazakhstan's Nursultan Nazarbayev it seems only has to call to say he's in town to get an Oval Office visit. The same goes for Azerbaijan's Ilham Aliyev.

But what can you do with Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov? There's simply no dignified way of abbreviating the ten-syllable name of Turkmenistan's new president. I even inquired of my wife, who as regular readers of this blog know is a Kazakh; she looked at me as though into the eyes of a child.

Which brings me to President Bush. Bush and his successor are simply going to have to bear down and learn to pronounce this man's name. Why? Because Turkmenistan, the possessor of the world's fourth-largest reserves of natural gas, is the improbable key to winning the current European pipeline war with Russia. Russia wants Turkmenistan's gas to nail down its dominance of the European natural gas market, while the U.S. and Europe want it to diversify Europe's natural gas supply away from Russia. Without Turkmenistan, neither can win.

So far, Russia is far in the lead, and a large part of the reason is courtship -- Russia's Vladimir Putin has met with Berdymukhamedov multiple times over the last year, even flying down to Turkmenistan. Yesterday, Putin seemed to win the fruits of his effort by signing a final agreement with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to carry their gas north through a new pipeline. In that part of the world, final is a fungible word, and in my opinion the game still goes on.

Meanwhile Bush has relegated Berdymukhamedov to a mere handshake at the United Nations. This is a blunder. Berdymukhamedov needs to find himself in the White House, over at Camp David, in America's embrace, getting a shoulder massage, a drink, a cigar.

Again, the West has something to learn from Putin.

The High-Stakes U.S. Courtship of Turkmenistan

The Bush administration's imminent creation of a powerful new Eurasian energy office is part of a late but broad strategy to catch up to and overtake Russia's advanced natural gas juggernaut in Europe.

As I reported a couple of days ago, the administration plans to appoint a potent two-man diplomatic team -- former ambassador to Russia Thomas Pickering, and Steven Mann, currently a senior State Department official on Central and South Asia.

People with whom I've been exchanging messages say the duo's main task is this: To transform a long-shot European natural gas pipeline proposal called Nabucco into reality. Nabucco would carry natural gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe.

By accomplishing that, the U.S. would blunt the impact of an advanced Russian pipeline project that's meant to secure and increase its position as Europe's most important natural gas supplier (Russia's Gazprom already controls about 30% of Europe's natural gas and oil supply).

While Russia sees itself as simply forwarding the market principles that the West espouses as a mantra, the Bush administration and the European Union think it's a bad idea for Gazprom to carve out greater economic influence in Europe. And Nabucco would give Europe a channel for Caspian natural gas independent of Russia.

The key to all this is the republic of Turkmenistan -- possessor of the world's fourth-largest supply of natural gas -- and its neophyte president, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. A dentist by training, Berdymukhamedov was catapulted to the presidency last December on the death of Turkmenistan's ultra-bizarre ruler, Saparmurat Niyazov.

Now the new, 50-year-old Turkmen leader is the subject of one of the world's most curious diplomatic courtships.

Russia's Vladimir Putin is all over Berdymukhamedov. Were they not just five years apart in age, one wouldn't be surprised to hear of Putin trying to adopt him as his only son. Russian delegations are in the capital of Ashkabad almost constantly, and Putin himself has gone down at least twice to see Berdymukhamedov, in addition to meeting him one-on-one in Tehran and Russia.

Why? Putin wants Berdymukhamedov to agree to export almost all his natural gas north to Russia for onward shipment to Europe. And he seems close to succeeding. There actually is a handshake deal (in my experience in the former Soviet Union, a signed contract is equivalent to a western handshake; it only becomes a genuine contract when the pipes arrive on site for welding, and the work actually begins.).

Enter Washington. The State Department has been dispatching regular teams to Ashkabad since last summer. The European Union has, too. They've dangled a higher price for Turkmen natural gas to lure Berdymukhamedov into committing to a competing pipeline -- a trans-Caspian line that would ship his gas to Europe via Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, into Nabucco.

In September, President Bush got into the act with a one-on-one chat with the Turkmen president in New York during the United Nations General Assembly.

But that hasn't been sufficient. I'm told that Berdymukhamedov keeps bringing up the Chinese, who have themselves decided to build a $26 billion natural gas pipeline east to China, absent any participation by the Turkmen at all.

If the West is so interested in the trans-Caspian line, the Turkmen leader says, why doesn't it emulate the Chinese and just go ahead and build it? Isn't the U.S. as great as the Chinese? Why must he aggravate his giant neighbor to the north -- Russia -- by taking the lead?

Plus, Berdymukhamedov is suspicious about the West's human rights agenda. Under the previous Turkmen leader, the republic had one of the worst human rights records in the former Soviet Union, which is saying a lot. Berdymukhamedov has moved to loosen up, but he isn't about to go European.

Washington and the EU have replied that the West isn't like the Chinese -- pipelines have to be built by private companies; the countries don't get involved in actual construction. And on the human rights side, "we tell him, 'We're not asking you to be Sweden or the U.K.," one person involved in the Western courtship tells me. For comparison purposes, they are telling Berdymukhamedov not to look to Europe, but to his neighbors Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. They've got their autocrats, but generally aren't known for dark prisons with men in chains. "If we can get KazAzerTurk on the same page, that would be a nice little club," this person says.

Berdymukhamedov isn't quite biting, which brings in Pickering and Mann. Washington hopes they can manage to nudge the pipeline over the finish line.

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Rights: Creative Commons

News: Bush Creating New Position Of Senior Envoy For Russia, Caspian

The Bush Administration is about to appoint a retired senior diplomat to a newly created position to try to advance ambitious U.S. aims in Russia and on the Caspian Sea. Like the 11th-hour push on Israel and Palestine, it's an example of Bush's determination to stay relevant by attacking the thorny global problems he largely sidestepped until now.

Thomas Pickering, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia and among the country's most respected statesmen, has been asked to return to the State Department as a special envoy with a broad portfolio in the Eurasian region, according to people with whom I've been talking.

I met Pickering in 1993, when he was ambassador to Russia, and he's an extremely smooth, well-connected, mannerly fellow. He's suited for his leading tasks -- to help smooth over some of the friction with Russia's Vladimir Putin, and work on getting Caspian natural gas to the West via a trans-Caspian pipeline from Turkmenistan.

Pickering's deputy would be Steven Mann, a Central Asia specialist with among the longest titles in the State Department -- principal deputy assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs. I've met Mann numerous times, and find him extremely knowledgeable and realistic without being cynical.

The twin appointments amount to a resurrection -- and elevation -- of the old job of Caspian Sea czar, a post that Mann previously held. It's a Clinton-era position that Colin Powell abolished as unnecessary when he became secretary of state.

One seasoned Washington hand with whom I exchanged messages said the Bush administration is re-inventing the job because it doesn't know what else to do in Moscow and on the Caspian. "They have run out of options and need someone with more gravitas to show they are serious and not irrelevant," he said. " The question is why Pickering would come back for this."

I'd say Condoleeza Rice must have seriously flattered Pickering that only he could salvage the situation. But we will wait for Pickering himself to speak after his appointment becomes official.