Steve LeVine covers foreign affairs for BusinessWeek. He previously was correspondent for Central Asia and the Caucasus for The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for 11 years. His first book, The Oil and the Glory, a history of the former Soviet Union through the lens of oil, was published in October 2007. Putin’s Labyrinth, his new book, profiles Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians. It was released this week.

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A Blog on Russia, Central Asia and
the Caucasus

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Washington's New Idea: Get the Tribals Riled Up


For a roadmap of what not to do in Pakistan, read today's Pakistan piece by Steven Meyers, Eric Schmitt and David Sanger in The New York Times. Dick Cheney and Condi Rice are justifiably worried about Pervez Musharraf's grip on Pakistan stability given the rise of militant Islamic groups in the country's northwest, and the growing foothold by Taliban forces and pro-Taliban civilians. What they are considering: beefing up covert U.S. activity in the region, including the tribal border areas.

I know these areas fairly well from my own travels there over the last couple of decades, and I hope that someone is informing the administration of its folly. Very little in the tribal areas is "covert." The tribal chiefs, plus every family in their villages, are likely to know of the presence of increased U.S. forces even before their boots hit the ground. That's the kind of place this strip of land is. The tribal areas are also among the best-armed places in the world, and the people there don't like uninvited outsiders all that much, which is one reason why the Pakistani Army has fared so poorly there. So an uprising could very well follow.

Advice: If you know where Osama Bin Ladin is, just tell the Pakistanis. That's how Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Ramzi bin al-Shibh were captured after all.

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