Benazir Bhutto's Legacy

I first met Benazir Bhutto at a political rally north of Karachi in November 1988. Three months earlier, Pakistan ruler Zia ul-Haq had died in a plane crash, setting up Pakistan's first contested elections in more than a decade. Zia had hanged her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and jailed her, which gave Benazir Bhutto the political potency of a martyr, and she was running hard on that image for election to Parliament.

It would be an immense understatement to say that Bhutto, then 36, was immensely popular at home in southern Sindh province, and with followers of her Pakistan People's Party across the country. These people treated her like a rock star, and she and her husband, Asif Zardari, behaved like they were. Bhutto, educated at Harvard and Oxford, promised to bring democracy and its fruits home, and a lot of people -- including much of the West -- believed her. I know that I did. I went on to meet her a few times in three years as the Pakistan-based Newsweek correspondent.

Nineteen years later, Bhutto had served two terms as prime minister. She was removed both times by the nation's strong president for alleged corruption and incompetence. To be fair, her political rival, Nawaz Sharif, was removed twice as prime minister in intervals with her during the 1990s on similar charges. And when Pervez Musharraf came to power in a coup in 1999, both were sent into exile.

As a candidate for prime minister again the last two months, Bhutto made the same promises of democracy. The vows had worn thin -- people knew that she had failed twice as prime minister to transcend her feudal roots. At heart and in behavior, she was imperious, and her strongest sense was one of self-entitlement.

But Bhutto's legacy, I think, is the hope she brought the country back in 1988. Young, beautiful, and confident, she promised to fearlessly take on those who would challenge democracy. And she continued to do so until the end.

NY Times: Wrongheaded on Pakistan

Wrong Way
Originally uploaded by flattop341

I am no basher of The New York Times editorial page, but its ostensibly pro-democratic position today on Pakistan would be amusing were it not so sad.

This issue -- whither Pakistan -- is central to the themes of democracy, security and oil usually discussed in the context of the Caspian region and Russia on this blog.

The Times supports a coalition of former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif as progress toward democracy. The newspaper supposes that this dual political front would be more democratic than Gen. Pervez Musharraf. To borrow one of The Times' own phrases, this is preposterously presumed. If the newspaper backed the head of the country's lawyers movement -- Aitzaz Ahsan -- it would be on far more solid ground, in my opinion. Instead, it reaches for Pakistan's tired, failed past.

Photo: flattop341
Rights: Creative Commons

Pakistan: It's About Power, Not Terrorism

For six years, the West has turned to Pakistan's General Musharraf to maintain stability in the world's laboratory of extremist Islamic terror. Events in Pakistan have rippled west and northwest to Afghanistan and Central Asia, to Europe all the way to Great Britain, and throughout the Middle East.

Now, Musharraf appears to be on the political ropes, with one of his main adversaries about to arrive at Islamabad Airport, and the other right behind him.

So should the West worry? The answer is yes and no -- for those worried about Pakistan itself, politics is about to revert to its venal and stormy norm; but nothing is likely to change in the national security sphere.

In a piece just filed on line, my friend Zahid Hussain of The Times of London says that Musharraf will try to defuse the arrival tomorrow (Monday) of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan by putting him right back on a military plane to Saudi Arabia. Here is the first paragraph of Zahid's piece: Pakistani authorities are expected to deport Nawaz Sharif, the exiled former Prime Minister, back to Saudi Arabia as soon as he returns to Pakistan tomorrow in a bid to topple President Pervez Musharraf. Read story

Steve's comment: There is very little chance that Musharraf will salvage his position; he will have to step out of politics, opening the way for a political rematch between the country's pair of two-time prime ministers -- Sharif and Benazir Bhutto.

So much for the experiment with political reform that Musharraf claimed to be initiating with his 1999 coup against Sharif after the then-prime minister effectively almost murdered him and a planeload of passengers by refusing an airliner carrying them landing rights in the country.

The current degree of absurdity is illustrated by the industrialist Sharif's almost unchallenged depiction of himself as a fighter for democratic ideals. Few seem to recall Sharif's political beginnings as a 1980s creation of the ISI, the country's intelligence agency. Having lost favor with the Army since that impolite treatment of Musharraf in 1999, he is now painting himself as a man of the people.

Politics aside, Pakistan's bulwark of stability -- the Army -- will certainly salvage itself, with or without Musharraf (I think without). Washington and the rest of the West will continue to have their partner, to the degree Pakistan has been one, in fighting the al Qaeda radicals using Waziristan as a base.

The Dealmaking General

Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has granted a slew of media interviews claiming that increasingly isolated General Musharraf has agreed to resign from the military in order to run again as president next month. The upshot: With the media blast, Bhutto is trying to force Musharraf to honor the pact she says they struck. But if he has nodded to such a deal, and abides by it, he has opened the door to a fresh catfight among Pakistan’s vile senior political elite.

Here is the first paragraph of the FT story: General Pervez Musharraf has reached an agreement with exiled opposition leader Benazir Bhutto under which he will resign as military chief in exchange for her party’s support for his re-election as president. Read story

Steve's comment: According to the news accounts, Bhutto, who was twice prime minister before being forced to leave the country following Musharraf's 1999 coup, squeezed several key concessions from Musharraf: The constitution would be changed so she could run for prime minister again; corruption charges would be dropped against her and some of her political followers; and he would step down by the end of the year as chief of the Army.

According to Bhutto, the idea is that Musharraf would then be free to run again for a five-year term for elections expected next month.

No one is defending Musharraf from criticism -- he has plenty to apologize for in terms of his performance in office. But his dealmaking is cynical to the extreme in his effort to retain political power.

Quite apart from Bhutto's competence, the problem with his horse-trading is that the Supreme Court has agreed to allow the country's other exiled former two-time prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to return home.

And Musharraf apparently hasn't included Sharif in the deal. So expect more political turmoil among politicians with absolutely no respect for the person in office -- unless it happens to be they themselves. Here is Zahid Hussain's take on the topic.

The General's Bungled Opportunity in Pakistan

Pakistan seems headed for even worse trouble than seemed possible last week. Now both of its discredited former prime ministers seem poised to return from exile. The upshot: This perpetually strategic country is again unable to break its cycle of corruption and politics-of-entitlement.


Here is the first paragraph of The AP story: The party of exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ruled out reconciliation with Pakistan's embattled military leader after a court said he can return home before upcoming elections. Read rest of story

Steve's comment: Sharif and his constant rival, Benazir Bhutto, both seem to see blood in the water, and a chance to grab back the power they lost when Gen. Musharraf seized control in 1999. Both are enjoying portraying the democrat.

Of course, neither is anything of the kind. Both represent crooked politics, crooked business, bribes and madness for power. That their respective parties have failed to grow up and find someone new after eight years in the wilderness demonstrates their own bankruptness.

Musharraf is ultimately at fault. Eight years after promising his country a new way, he failed to cultivate any civilian politician to replace him in the event of just the situation he now faces. Because of that, he, too, resembles the same old generals of Pakistan's past, who seized power and could imagine no one else sitting in their seat.

Without fail, Pakistan with regularity has found itself at the vortex of world events since its birth in 1947. It seems genetically strategic. So its politics cannot be ignored. As to what those politics will ultimately be this time, all bets are off.

One thing seems sure. Musharraf appears to be hanging on to power by a slender reed. Zahid Hussain of the Times of London has this typically incisive analysis of Musharraf's predicament.