Did Georgia Shoot Down A Russian Plane?

Georgia says there is a fire in a thick, isolated section of forest in the north of the country. That's relevant because the country's interior minister also said a few hours ago that the Georgian military fired on an aircraft that it believed to be Russian. A search may start tomorrow to determine the source of the fire. So far Russia says it is missing no planes. The upshot: If it is a Russian military aircraft, there will probably be a significant escalation of tensions in the already much-strained relationship between the two neighbors.

Here is the top of the Reuter's story: Georgian forces fired at a plane they believed was Russian after it violated the Caucasus republic's airspace on Wednesday, a senior interior ministry official said. The incident marks an intensification of a row between the two countries in which Georgia has accused Russian planes of violating its border and of dropping a missile near Tbilisi. Russia called the Georgian statement a provocation. It has not reported any plane missing, and when asked specifically about the Georgian statement an official denied Russian aircraft had violated Georgian airspace. Rest of story.

Steve's comment: Russia and Georgia have had a tense relationship since the Soviet breakup. Under Eduard Shevardnadze, Georgia was dismembered when Russia backed separatists in the Black Sea region of Abkhazia, which used Moscow's sophisticated military to successfully break away.

More recently, Georgia has accused Moscow of a few violations of Georgian air space, including the firing of a missile. Western inspectors traveled to Georgia and backed up its claim about the missile.

Russia has been enraged by the charge, and the western position toward it. But if Georgia actually shot down one of Russia's planes, that could change the complexion of the tension. Russia's Putin stands almost entirely on a nationalistic platform of toughness bordering on belligerence toward the outside world. If it is indeed what the Georgians suggest, that will color his response.

Russia in the Air

The Central Asia republics joined their two paternalistic neighbors -- Russia and China -- in a military show yesterday. The climax was President Putin's announcement that Russia had resumed long-range flights by its nuclear bombers, and a U.S. announcement that NATO aircraft had scrambled the aircraft. The upshot: The message was not warlike, but it was belligerent. Russia is attempting to demonstrate that its global ambitions are not limited to refineries and pipelines.

The first paragraph of the L.A. Times account: Russian President Vladimir V. Putin on Friday announced reinstatement of the Soviet-era practice of having nuclear bombers routinely make long-distance flights that bring them within striking distance of the United States and its allies. "Today just after midnight, 14 strategic missile aircraft, with support and fuel planes, took off from seven airfields across Russia," Putin said in televised remarks. "Combat duty began in which a total of 20 planes are taking part. From today, combat duty of this kind will be carried out on a regular basis." Read story

Steve's comment: Russia's bomber flight is reminiscent of a similar show that the U.S. put on almost precisely 10 years ago. On Sept. 15, 1997, the U.S. 82d Airborne flew from the U.S. all the way to Kyrgyzstan for a Central Asia military exercise. It was the longest such airborne mission in history, capped by a parachute landing.

It was intended to demonstrate not that the U.S. intended to invade, but that it had the reach and will to get to the region. No one anticipated that, four years later, that would be illustrated in fact with the establishment of a semi-permanent military presence there.

The Russian flight was farce in the sense that Moscow lacks the capability to mount a massive long-range military assault. But in military language, image can be crucial. Russia is saying that it intends over the coming years to take its previously formidible military out of mothballs, and turn it into something of use. That use is surely regional, but given the neighborhood it is something that bears watching.

Here is the first paragraph of a Reuters account of the Shanghai military exercises: CHEBARKUL, Russia - Russia and China staged their biggest joint exercises on Friday but denied this show of military prowess could lead to the formation of a counterweight to NATO. Read story