Meet the New Boss

Much ink has been spilled in recent months parsing the statements of Russia's new president, Dmitri Medvedev, with the aim of deciphering whether he will be more democratic than Vladimir Putin.

The result has been in the eye of the beholder -- those wishing for greater political participation from below have seen a suppressed democrat; others have said that, regardless of Medvedev's own preferences, he will be strait-jacketed by the presence of his predecessor in the prime minister's suite. No one, as far as I can tell, has predicted a traditional, strong Russian leader in the making.

History is replete with examples of seemingly meek gentlemen morphing into full-throated autocrats (among them Pakistan's Zia ul-Haq, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, and further back, Kaiser Wilhelm II). So such a future cannot be ruled out in Medvedev's case.

But, at risk of reading someone else's mind, I think that Putin did not select his protege with that history bothering him; rather it was precisely because of that precedence that he passed over Medvedev's chief rival, Sergei Ivanov, who as a former spy himself has many friends in Russia's powerful security services. Putin selected Medvedev, a former law professor, for his loyalty, and his belief that Medvedev would be the least troubled by Putin's continued strong role in political affairs.

For fans of Robert Caro's magisterial The Power Broker, Putin wants to be Russia's Robert Moses. He wants to have long service, calling the shots regardless of who sits in the Kremlin.

Do not look for Russia to democratize in any western sense, not for some time in any case. Rather, Medvedev's role will be largely economic -- attempting to broaden the boom away from energy.

On foreign policy, to the degree he has any latitude, he seems likely to speak more softly. But the Gazprom-led economic march into Europe will continue. More worryingly at the moment, do not expect any precipitate withdrawal of the chin-out Russian activities in Georgia.

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The Putin

Does Putinism require Vladimir Putin?

Putin announced today that he’s prepared to stand beside Dmitri Medvedev as his prime minister. He also says there’s no plan to transfer presidential powers to the prime minister's office.

I personally think that Putin will exercise much more power than any Russian prime minister in the post-Soviet period after the March elections. After all, he only said that there are no plans to change the law – Medvedev needn’t formally change any rules to allow his mentor to govern, for instance, the ultra-powerful military and intelligence services.

Yet I recall a conversation on my last trip to Moscow this year with a super-smart Russian analyst who predicted that Putin would step aside – there would simply be a shifting of seats as in musical chairs.

So let’s take Putin at his word and consider whether Putin is a requirement for the current system to go on.

The prevailing wisdom is yes. Putin failed to build up Russian stable institutions of governance during his almost eight-year tenure, but instead erected power around himself, the argument goes. In an editorial Saturday, my former newspaper, The Wall Street Journal, wrote, “Putinism hangs on a single man.”

That's an enormous categorical assumption. And I think it's wrong. Putin did build up an institution, and it’s hiding in plain sight: The people all around him, in public and behind closed doors, who run the Kremlin, Gazprom, Rosneft and the rest of the economy are that institution. Heirs to the fortunes wrested in part from Russia's powerful oligarchs of the 1990s, they aren't going anywhere.

Putin has just bequeathed one of the most powerful parts of that institution to Medvedev, and that's his political brain trust. Russia's Vedomosti newspaper says Medvedev's presidential campaign will be run by Putin chief of staff Sergei Sobyanin and possibly also his main strategist, prince of darkness Vladislav Surkov.

Yes, I think my Moscow friend had a point. Though it can seem otherwise, what's been built up in Russia is bigger than one man. Still, Putin will be around a long time. From close in, he can ensure that his successor is getting along well. He can reassure the many people counting on this institution for their fortunes. He can continue to help balance these forces. And he can step in forcefully should Medvedev unexpectedly falter.

Many people call Putin’s practices “Putinism.” So what shall we denote the institutional proper noun for those who practice Putinism?

I suggest The Putin.

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Rights: Creative Commons