Russia and Bending: What Biden Didn't Say

Last Friday, O&G wrote of U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's strong grasp of reality in the former Soviet Union, as expressed in his actions in Ukraine and Georgia. But yesterday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tried to sweep up in the wake of a later, widely remarked-upon Wall Street Journal interview with the vice president, headlined, "Biden Says Weakened Russia Will Bend to U.S." Clinton's remarks on a Sunday talk show came after a senior adviser to President Dmitri Medvedev asked, "Who is shaping the U.S. foreign policy, the president or respectable members of his team?"

The Russian official, Sergei Prikhodko, said he found the Journal story "perplexing." I do too, but for different reasons: Unless Biden said something more than is in the story and the excerpts posted on the Journal website, he didn't suggest that Russia will accede to U.S. wishes.

This is important because, bluntly speaking, the Journal headline and the follow-on reporting by The New York Times make Biden look wholly misinformed. This isn't nuance -- if Biden truly meant what the Journal reports he did, Mike McFaul, the National Security Council's Russia hand, needs to get over to the Executive Office Building and have a little chat with him.

The Journal story, written by Peter Spiegel, synthesizes Biden's remarks as such: The seriously weakened Russian economy will "force the country to make accommodations to the West on a wide range of national security issues, including loosening its grip on former Soviet republics and shrinking its vast nuclear arsenal."

Within the story, we get this quote: "I think we vastly underestimate the hand that we hold." The story goes on with this Biden quote: "Russia has to make some very difficult, calculated decisions. They have a shrinking population base, they have a withering economy, they have a banking sector and structure that is not likely to be able to withstand the next 15 years. They're in a situation where the world is changing before them and they're clinging to something in the past that is not sustainable."

To summarize, Biden thinks that the Obama administration has underplayed its leverage as Russia suffers from a profoundly weak economy and disastrous demographics. On the merits of the assertion, I'd argue that the U.S. has not underestimated its leverage -- to suggest that the U.S. can parlay Russian impoverishment into changed Kremlin policy on Iran, on missile defense, on European gas policy, and so on, is simply a misread of Russia. But this is beside the point. Biden does not predict Russian capitulation. It's not in the quotes.

Now to the Journal's second point -- that Biden suggested that Russia will loosen its grip on former Soviet states such as Georgia and Ukraine.

Biden says the following: "I don't expect the Russians to embrace -- particularly this government, particularly Putin -- to embrace the notion that [they should] reject a sphere of influence. But I do expect them to understand we don't accept a sphere of influence."

Fair enough -- Moscow ought to recognize that Washington won't shift a position on Central Asia, on the Caucasus, and on the other Slavic states that's existed since George H.W. Bush's administration. But where is the prediction of a Russian accommodation to the West's position? It doesn't appear in the quotes as far as I can see.

This isn't Biden's finest moment. But it's a problem of a different order from what one would conclude from the Journal headline and lead.

What Biden in Ukraine and Georgia Shows: Making Up (With Russia) Is Hard to Do

In a two-day swoop, Vice President Joe Biden has single-handedly signaled something about the reset button: While the idea of rapprochement with Russia that he ostentatiously suggested five months ago is romantic, getting back together usually isn't a good idea for divorced couples. They tend to go back to the same old aggravating habits.

In this case, Biden first went to Ukraine, which he assured that Washington isn't recognizing Russia's claimed entitlement to influence over its neighbors. He said that if Ukraine decides to join NATO, the U.S. is behind it. (Thanks to RealClearPolitics for posting the transcript.)

Then today, Biden flew south to Georgia, where he said the same thing: "We understand that Georgia aspires to join NATO. We fully support that aspiration," Biden said.



Almost nothing is guaranteed to raise the hackles of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin more than the suggestion that Georgia should be permitted to join NATO; a close second would be the same formulation for Ukraine. Russia regards both nations as its own. Indeed, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin responded by saying that Georgia is "remilitarizing" after being pummeled by Russia in a five-day war last August, and saying that Moscow might move to stop it.

So why did the Obama administration choose to put irritating language into Biden's mouth? The answer is realpolitik. Washington truly does want calmer, more constructive relations with Russia. It knows that neither Ukraine nor Georgia are capable of meeting NATO requirements; it also knows that the two aren't welcome as members by much of Europe, which -- there is no delicate way of putting it -- allows Russia to call the shots on issues including further NATO enlargement and the direction of new natural gas pipelines.

Yet, putting aside for now the question of whether NATO in fact should expand further, for reasons of politics and appearances, Washington cannot be seen to be acceding to Russia's wishes. So you have speeches like Biden's in Ukraine and Georgia.

It's true that Biden tried to soften the sting by also suggesting that both Ukraine and Georgia could improve their political systems. Biden also refrained from agreeing to Saakashvili's request for a replenishment of armored weapons, which Georgia all-but exhausted in the August war.

Some of the blogosphere is alight with accusations that Washington threw "another ally under the bus," as Pamela Geller over at Atlas Shrugs put it. Others, such as Robert Antonio Hussain, go the other way. "Why must VP Joe Biden stir up the pot all over again about Georgia, Russia, NATO and Georgian Pres. Saakashvili?" wrote Hussain.

The answer to Geller: No he didn't.

The answer to Hussain: Because he must.

Russia's Achilles Heel

Over the last couple of days, the post-mortems have begun to roll in from big-thinkers on Russia. The prescriptions advised in order to bring about status-quo ante in Georgia -- ejecting Russia from G-8, distancing Moscow further from global trade treaties -- add up to a consensus of "Oh Dear, Oh My." Non-membership in G-8 and WTO no doubt is provoking snickers in the Kremlin.

Contrary to these views, however, the West and the U.S. in particular do have one very real lever, one that Karl Rove might recognize -- Russia's very strength.

Russia's Achilles Heel is its petro-power. It's a message that both senators Barack Obama (and his running mate Joe Biden) and John McCain should keep in mind as they prepare to deal with Russia.

For more than a year, O and G has been describing progressive U.S. setbacks in what I've called the Pipeline War, the struggle with Russia for energy-driven political influence in Europe. We've also been writing here during that period about the growing tensions between Russia and Georgia.

In a nutshell, Russia understands that power in a large swath of the world -- Europe, the former Soviet Union and parts of the Middle East -- can be exerted from control of oil and natural gas pipelines. That's how the U.S. has inserted its power into Russia's backyard -- through the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline that crosses the country of today's conflict, Georgia. Now, Vladimir Putin intends to build on Russia's restored power by erecting two gigantic new natural gas pipelines into Europe, which already relies on Russia for almost a third of its gas.

Here's where the Achilles Heel comes in. One of these pipelines -- South Stream -- would pass through nations like Bulgaria, Hungary, Serbia and Austria. These are countries in which the U.S. has influence.

If the U.S. wants Russia's attention, persuade these countries and others -- for instance Germany, the main European partner on the second pipeline, called Nord Stream -- to freeze their support for the lines until it's satisfied that Georgia's sovereignty is no longer compromised.

Energy, and specifically Nord Stream and South Stream, are a Russian strength, and a genuine vulnerability.