Becoming a Central Asian Dictator: Family Helps; So Does Medical Training

We have just a few examples of what it takes to assume control in one of the Caspian's more serious dictatorships. One best way of course is to be the dictator's offspring. But Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov triggered a search for the dentists of current dictators when he rose to Turkmenistan's leadership in 2006 on the sudden death of President Saparmurat Niyazov.

Now, however, the readers of Central Asian tea leaves may have to recast their successor-guessing net. It turns out that surgeons may do as well.

As Turkmenistan.ru reports today, Berdymukhamedov surpassed himself and actually performed cancer surgery on an unidentified patient from the Balkan Velayat province of western Turkmenistan. Well, he did have a bit of assistance -- two German and one Turkmen specialist were on hand with anesthesia and a helping hand.

This news is attracting attention. In Britain, the BBC reports that the tumor, declared benign, was behind the patient's ear. In Taipei, Taiwan News notes that some think that Berdymukhamedov's book on medicinal plants should be adopted in the training of health workers.

In other words, in terms of analysis, this development could shake up politics. In Kazakhstan, for instance, former first son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev is currently on the outs after unfortunately plotting a couple of coup attempts against President Nursultan Nazarbayev; he is on the run and living in exile in Austria. Central Asia's best analysts say this permanently puts the kabbosh on Aliyev's political ambitions. But these experts need to take into account this Central Asian shift: Aliyev is a trained surgeon.

Anyone have a list of the surgeons of Uzbekistan?

Giffen Watch: Former Kazakhstan Consultant Cannot Examine CIA Documents

The latest from the federal courtroom hosting the foreign bribery case of uber-middleman James Giffen is that only his lawyers can examine files disgorged from the Central Intelligence Agency. Unless the CIA grants specific permission for a requested document, Giffen himself cannot look at the classified material.

That's from a decision issued by federal Judge William Pauley in New York. The ruling was handed down June 5th, but I haven't seen it published anywhere. At the time of Giffen's 2003 arrest, it was the biggest U.S. foreign bribery case since the law was enacted in 1977.

The 68-year-old Giffen has a long history of business in the Soviet Union and then Kazakhstan. Starting in 1969, he stood as a middleman in deals between American businesses and Soviet enterprises. In 1987, he introduced Chevron to Mikhail Gorbachev, leading to the company's eventual acquisition of the supergiant Tengiz field in Kazakhstan, its single-biggest oil property. After the Soviet collapse, he cozied up to Kazakhstan leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, becoming his main oil adviser and, for a time during the late 1990s, the go-to middleman for any major oil deal in the Central Asian country.

Six years ago, that world came tumbling down when Giffen was arrested at JFK. The charges are that, as Nazarbayev's consultant, he channeled some $80 million in payments from American oil companies to European bank accounts held by the Kazakh president and other leading Kazakhs.

As discussed last month, the CIA documents represent Giffen's last line of defense. He claims that the entire time he was working with Nazarbayev, he was also briefing U.S. intelligence agencies. As effectively a U.S. intelligence asset, Giffen says, he believed his actions were approved by the U.S. But to prove his case, he argued that he required access to classified documents.

The case has been stalled until now over the documents -- most of the time, the CIA simply refused to cooperate with the prosecution; now it is cooperating, but it doesn't want Giffen himself to have automatic access to the classified documents.

In April, Judge Pauley sided with the CIA's position, as channeled through the prosecution. Giffen's lawyers asked him to reconsider; the argument went that Giffen himself might notice aspects of the documents that his lawyers wouldn't.

Pauley ruled against Giffen. The next hearing is Sept. 23d. William Schwartz, Giffen's lawyer, declines to comment.

On the Trouble in Blogistan

Earlier this week, the Financial Times' Isabel Gorst wrote a nice piece on trouble in what she called Blogistan -- a threat to free use of the Internet in Kazakhstan, and the link between that and the publication of former first son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev's tell-all book, Godfather-in-Law. (RFE-RL's Andrey Shary interviewed Aliyev about the book.). I noticed some Facebook traffic on the Internet problems in Kazakhstan as well, and asked frequent O&G contributor Sasha Meyer to weigh in on the topic. His story follows.

By Sasha Meyer

The debate on whether free markets and liberal democracy can take root in Central Asia has been going on for two decades. Both proponents and those who disagree with them will soon have a big opportunity in the form of a huge new audience to persuade.

Vint Cerf, the father of the Internet, and Tim Berners Lee, the inventor of the Web, have noted recently that the mobile web has finally taken off. And Central Asia is keeping up with the trend: Telecoms in the entire region -- Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan -- are rolling out mobile broadband. These countries got started with next-generation wireless services even earlier than Russia, which is usually first in the former Soviet Union to adopt new technologies, according to Pyramid Research.

Wireless Internet is likely to spread fast in Central Asia for two reasons. First, it is cheaper to deploy than copper and fiber-optic technologies, and the rollout will be seen as a mere upgrade by millions of consumers who already have a cell phone. Secondly, the costs of hardware are falling. Phone and computer makers, facing saturated markets in the rich world, have been focusing on developing nations. Predictably, they are offering their wares at lower prices in poor countries. A sub-$35 handset, capable of delivering both phone calls and Internet access, has been available since 2007, thanks to a campaign by GSM Alliance, a telephone industry group, to develop a web-capable phone for all.

Similarly, in computers, the netbook, a small laptop, went on sale in 2007 for $300 apiece, a previously unheard of price for a computer. Phone companies plan to or already do offer these computers free or at subsidized prices to entice new customers, just like they do with mobile phones. The drop in netbook prices is forecast to go on; Nvidia, a chip maker, wants to bring the figure down to $100.

Such expectations are favored by supply-and-demand dynamics. While laptop and desktop chip production is dominated by the Intel-AMD duopoly, the market for netbook chips is fiercely competitive, with at least four more companies in the game. Furthermore, rivalry among computer manufacturers is also hotting up. On the demand side, netbooks are a huge hit in Asia, and will also remain popular with Western consumers who opt for cheaper alternatives during economic recession.

All that means millions more ordinary Central Asians will start using the web in the next couple of years. These newcomers to the Net will be distinct in that most will speak no English or Russian (those who do are already on line). But there's a dearth of content in local languages, which represents a big opportunity for those who are in the business of delivering news or shaping public opinion.

Some are better prepared than others. Radio Liberty has websites in almost all of the languages, complete with podcasts; its Kazakh service has a blog to boot. Voice of America's Uzbek TV programs have a YouTube channel and a Facebook presence. And Kremlin's Voice of Russia plans to take its Uzbek and Kyrgyz services online. This growth in Net users will also offer a reach-boosting opportunity for NGOs that provide news analysis, such as IWRP and Eurasianet (the latter will likely follow the former's example and expand beyond Russian and into local languages).

As to how, some recent studies might offer a hint. People in BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are using mobile web to access primarily not information but entertainment, according to a Nielsen Media study.

One possible format worth emulating then is that of the HuffingtonPost, a decidedly political website that mixes serious reports with entertainment news and the latest in celebrity lifestyle. On the other hand, research by Andrew Odlyzko, a well-known Internet expert, suggests a different approach. Odlyzko found that content is not king: People have always used a new technology not because it offered content, but rather because it connected them with others. In practical terms, that would mean a Craigslist in Kazakh or Uzbek might be as valuable as a HuffingtonPost in those tongues.

With millions more going on line in Central Asia in the near future, an opportunity opens up for the U.S., the EU and Japan as well. The G7 could help boost civil society discourse in the region by providing connectivity that is not vulnerable to censorship, thus ensuring a level playing field for all viewpoints.

Stories I'm following today

Steven Mufson of The Washington Post reports on Saudi Arabia’s continued towering role in the world oil industry.

Bruce Pannier of RFE-RL reports on the release of more leaked recordings of top insiders in Kazakhstan, including President Nazarbayev. They appear to be part of a campaign by his exiled former son-in-law, Rakhat Aliyev, to show he remains a force to contend with.

Stefan Nicola of UPI reports on the latest developments in Russia’s economic thrust into the European energy market, and Europe’s apprehensive reaction to it.

Newsbits for the Weekend

James Giffen foreign bribery case - There will be no immediate selection of a trial date for former Kazakhstan oil gatekeeper Giffen. Today's federal court hearing in New York was postponed for six weeks -- until Dec. 13th. This is the second straight postponement in the already three-and-a-half-year-long case. Giffen is accused of passing along some $80 million in payments to Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev from American oil companies. With the way things are going, some are starting to think that this will be another touchy item passed along from the George Bush administration to his successor. Could a trial really wait until 2009? It's hard to believe, but considering Giffen's defense -- that he was an effective asset for the CIA during his entire time in Kazakhstan -- it could indeed take many, many months to disgorge top-secret documents from the government. And, as for the prosecutors, it's not clear that they are as eager as they earlier seemed to go fast.

The Vladimir Putin show - Can the Russian president go anywhere abroad without getting into a schoolyard scrap? In Lisbon today, Putin lashed out at European concerns regarding Russia's rising dominance in Europe's energy market. Russia has established a post-Soviet record of using its enormous petro-power as a blunt instrument for political and economic gain. But Putin said that it "makes me laugh" when he hears Europeans worry about Russians buying up European energy properties. Putin will have to do something more than be combative in order to calm European nerves.

Godfather-in-Law - Rakhat Aliyev, who until recently was the powerful son-in-law of Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev, is writing what appears to be a tell-all memoir of life inside the first family. Its working title, he says, is Godfather in Law. Aliyev's saga is a window into the sordid post-Soviet ruling class that's emerged in Central Asia and the Caucasus, many of whose states resemble sultanates rather than elective republics. The difference is that in Kazakhstan -- primarily because of the documentation that's been disclosed in the James Giffen case -- the mess is being played out in public. Aliyev was tossed out of the Kazakh ruling family earlier this year after a series of rows with the country's business elite, and the disappearance of two executives from his Almaty bank. Among the allegations he will make in his book is that Nazarbayev himself ordered the murder of Altynbek Sarsenbayev, a former Kazakh ambassador to Russia who joined the political opposition, then was murdered in February 2006. Critics have accused Aliyev himself of the murder. Aliyev has lived in exile in Austria since Nazarbayev ordered him arrested. RFE-RL has a good interview with Aliyev.

What If Rakhat Testifies?

Nazarbayev; Dariga and Rakhat in more powerful days

The word is that Rakhat Aliyev, Kazakh President Nazarbayev's former son-in-law, has met with U.S. Justice Department lawyers in Vienna. The subject: his possible testimony in the upcoming foreign bribery trial of James Giffen. While Aliyev was definitely in a position to know the degree to which Giffen did or did not serve as a cash conduit for Nazarbayev while he served as his main oil adviser, it is unclear he has the credibility to withstand cross examination.

It has been two months since Aliyev's fall from grace. In that time, he has seemingly lost everything -- his perch in Kazakhstan, his royal link, and even his retinue, most of whom have deserted since Nazarbayev ordered him charged with racketeering, and apparently led his daughter, Dariga, to divorce him.

What Aliyev does have left, however, is his tightly held knowledge of the inside workings of the Nazarbayev family. Some of the family finances was detailed in the Justice Department's indictment of Giffen, in which Nazarbayev is listed as an unindicted co-conspirator. But Aliyev could presumably say with some definitiveness just what role Giffen did or did not play with his former father-in-law. That is why U.S. prosecutors sought to see him in his exile in Vienna.

The question, if such testimony went forward, is whether Aliyev could overcome the natural presumption that he is settling scores.

As yet, no date is set for the trial to begin. Another pre-trial hearing is scheduled in New York this Friday.

Possibility of Rakhat Aliyev's Extradition

VIENNA, Austria, Jun. 2, 2007 (AP) The son-in-law of Kazakhstan's autocratic president has appealed to Austrian authorities not to extradite him to his homeland to face kidnapping charges, a magazine reported Saturday. Read the rest of the story

From Steve: The key question in the blockbuster news in Kazakhstan over the last several weeks is what pushed President Nursultan Nazarbayev to take such extreme measures: freeing himself to be president for life, and ordering the arrest of his son-in-law?

Both steps seriously diverge from Nazarbayev's long-crafted image as a global-level statesman. The events closely track his 2001 crackdown against both son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev and the country's young liberals; at that time Nazarbayev was convinced that Aliyev had launched a grave political plot against him.

It seems probable that this is the case now as well -- Nazarbayev became persuaded that Aliyev was mounting a worrisome challenge to his leadership, and decided to do away with his elder daughter's nettlesome husband once and for all.

Whatever the case, Nazarbayev's actions have required him to publicly bare his fangs, something he has never done in his 17 years of leadership. The events ask for a strong Western reconsideration of its foreign policy framework toward this oil-rich state.