Stories I'm following today

Steven Mufson of The Washington Post reports on Saudi Arabia’s continued towering role in the world oil industry.

Bruce Pannier of RFE-RL reports on the release of more leaked recordings of top insiders in Kazakhstan, including President Nazarbayev. They appear to be part of a campaign by his exiled former son-in-law, Rakhat Aliyev, to show he remains a force to contend with.

Stefan Nicola of UPI reports on the latest developments in Russia’s economic thrust into the European energy market, and Europe’s apprehensive reaction to it.

Newsbits for the Weekend

James Giffen foreign bribery case - There will be no immediate selection of a trial date for former Kazakhstan oil gatekeeper Giffen. Today's federal court hearing in New York was postponed for six weeks -- until Dec. 13th. This is the second straight postponement in the already three-and-a-half-year-long case. Giffen is accused of passing along some $80 million in payments to Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev from American oil companies. With the way things are going, some are starting to think that this will be another touchy item passed along from the George Bush administration to his successor. Could a trial really wait until 2009? It's hard to believe, but considering Giffen's defense -- that he was an effective asset for the CIA during his entire time in Kazakhstan -- it could indeed take many, many months to disgorge top-secret documents from the government. And, as for the prosecutors, it's not clear that they are as eager as they earlier seemed to go fast.

The Vladimir Putin show - Can the Russian president go anywhere abroad without getting into a schoolyard scrap? In Lisbon today, Putin lashed out at European concerns regarding Russia's rising dominance in Europe's energy market. Russia has established a post-Soviet record of using its enormous petro-power as a blunt instrument for political and economic gain. But Putin said that it "makes me laugh" when he hears Europeans worry about Russians buying up European energy properties. Putin will have to do something more than be combative in order to calm European nerves.

Godfather-in-Law - Rakhat Aliyev, who until recently was the powerful son-in-law of Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev, is writing what appears to be a tell-all memoir of life inside the first family. Its working title, he says, is Godfather in Law. Aliyev's saga is a window into the sordid post-Soviet ruling class that's emerged in Central Asia and the Caucasus, many of whose states resemble sultanates rather than elective republics. The difference is that in Kazakhstan -- primarily because of the documentation that's been disclosed in the James Giffen case -- the mess is being played out in public. Aliyev was tossed out of the Kazakh ruling family earlier this year after a series of rows with the country's business elite, and the disappearance of two executives from his Almaty bank. Among the allegations he will make in his book is that Nazarbayev himself ordered the murder of Altynbek Sarsenbayev, a former Kazakh ambassador to Russia who joined the political opposition, then was murdered in February 2006. Critics have accused Aliyev himself of the murder. Aliyev has lived in exile in Austria since Nazarbayev ordered him arrested. RFE-RL has a good interview with Aliyev.

What If Rakhat Testifies?

Nazarbayev; Dariga and Rakhat in more powerful days

The word is that Rakhat Aliyev, Kazakh President Nazarbayev's former son-in-law, has met with U.S. Justice Department lawyers in Vienna. The subject: his possible testimony in the upcoming foreign bribery trial of James Giffen. While Aliyev was definitely in a position to know the degree to which Giffen did or did not serve as a cash conduit for Nazarbayev while he served as his main oil adviser, it is unclear he has the credibility to withstand cross examination.

It has been two months since Aliyev's fall from grace. In that time, he has seemingly lost everything -- his perch in Kazakhstan, his royal link, and even his retinue, most of whom have deserted since Nazarbayev ordered him charged with racketeering, and apparently led his daughter, Dariga, to divorce him.

What Aliyev does have left, however, is his tightly held knowledge of the inside workings of the Nazarbayev family. Some of the family finances was detailed in the Justice Department's indictment of Giffen, in which Nazarbayev is listed as an unindicted co-conspirator. But Aliyev could presumably say with some definitiveness just what role Giffen did or did not play with his former father-in-law. That is why U.S. prosecutors sought to see him in his exile in Vienna.

The question, if such testimony went forward, is whether Aliyev could overcome the natural presumption that he is settling scores.

As yet, no date is set for the trial to begin. Another pre-trial hearing is scheduled in New York this Friday.

Possibility of Rakhat Aliyev's Extradition

VIENNA, Austria, Jun. 2, 2007 (AP) The son-in-law of Kazakhstan's autocratic president has appealed to Austrian authorities not to extradite him to his homeland to face kidnapping charges, a magazine reported Saturday. Read the rest of the story

From Steve: The key question in the blockbuster news in Kazakhstan over the last several weeks is what pushed President Nursultan Nazarbayev to take such extreme measures: freeing himself to be president for life, and ordering the arrest of his son-in-law?

Both steps seriously diverge from Nazarbayev's long-crafted image as a global-level statesman. The events closely track his 2001 crackdown against both son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev and the country's young liberals; at that time Nazarbayev was convinced that Aliyev had launched a grave political plot against him.

It seems probable that this is the case now as well -- Nazarbayev became persuaded that Aliyev was mounting a worrisome challenge to his leadership, and decided to do away with his elder daughter's nettlesome husband once and for all.

Whatever the case, Nazarbayev's actions have required him to publicly bare his fangs, something he has never done in his 17 years of leadership. The events ask for a strong Western reconsideration of its foreign policy framework toward this oil-rich state.