What Ahmadinejad's Declared Victory Means

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's officially declared re-election today may reflect the following not-altogether-surprising calculus by the nation's ruling circle: Victory by Ahmadinejad was validation of pre-eminent ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his clique; a triumph by any of his rivals, conversely, was revolution.

Supporters of Ahmadinejad's chief rival, Mir Hossain Mousavi, appear not to be giving up -- they are issuing full-throated declarations that Mousavi won.

What happens from here can't be predicted. But the regime's attitude -- meaning the context in which events will play out -- is crucial. Leaders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards the last few days have equated Mousavi's apparent surge of popular support to an incipient "velvet revolution." As noted previously, the analogy to Czechoslavakia's 1989 overthrow of Communism is striking. It means, as suggested above, that a Mousavi victory was rejected in leading circles -- it would not be genuine election by popular vote, but rather an invalid seizure of power.

That is not surprising, since it is precisely how most leaders in the region regard political opponents.

The ruling circle surrounding Khamenei predicted that Mousavi's people would go to the streets were he to lose. Therefore, look for a violent crushing of protests if they do. Again as previously discussed, the models to look at are Uzbekistan 2005 and Putin's Russia.