On the Trouble in Blogistan

Earlier this week, the Financial Times' Isabel Gorst wrote a nice piece on trouble in what she called Blogistan -- a threat to free use of the Internet in Kazakhstan, and the link between that and the publication of former first son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev's tell-all book, Godfather-in-Law. (RFE-RL's Andrey Shary interviewed Aliyev about the book.). I noticed some Facebook traffic on the Internet problems in Kazakhstan as well, and asked frequent O&G contributor Sasha Meyer to weigh in on the topic. His story follows.

By Sasha Meyer

The debate on whether free markets and liberal democracy can take root in Central Asia has been going on for two decades. Both proponents and those who disagree with them will soon have a big opportunity in the form of a huge new audience to persuade.

Vint Cerf, the father of the Internet, and Tim Berners Lee, the inventor of the Web, have noted recently that the mobile web has finally taken off. And Central Asia is keeping up with the trend: Telecoms in the entire region -- Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan -- are rolling out mobile broadband. These countries got started with next-generation wireless services even earlier than Russia, which is usually first in the former Soviet Union to adopt new technologies, according to Pyramid Research.

Wireless Internet is likely to spread fast in Central Asia for two reasons. First, it is cheaper to deploy than copper and fiber-optic technologies, and the rollout will be seen as a mere upgrade by millions of consumers who already have a cell phone. Secondly, the costs of hardware are falling. Phone and computer makers, facing saturated markets in the rich world, have been focusing on developing nations. Predictably, they are offering their wares at lower prices in poor countries. A sub-$35 handset, capable of delivering both phone calls and Internet access, has been available since 2007, thanks to a campaign by GSM Alliance, a telephone industry group, to develop a web-capable phone for all.

Similarly, in computers, the netbook, a small laptop, went on sale in 2007 for $300 apiece, a previously unheard of price for a computer. Phone companies plan to or already do offer these computers free or at subsidized prices to entice new customers, just like they do with mobile phones. The drop in netbook prices is forecast to go on; Nvidia, a chip maker, wants to bring the figure down to $100.

Such expectations are favored by supply-and-demand dynamics. While laptop and desktop chip production is dominated by the Intel-AMD duopoly, the market for netbook chips is fiercely competitive, with at least four more companies in the game. Furthermore, rivalry among computer manufacturers is also hotting up. On the demand side, netbooks are a huge hit in Asia, and will also remain popular with Western consumers who opt for cheaper alternatives during economic recession.

All that means millions more ordinary Central Asians will start using the web in the next couple of years. These newcomers to the Net will be distinct in that most will speak no English or Russian (those who do are already on line). But there's a dearth of content in local languages, which represents a big opportunity for those who are in the business of delivering news or shaping public opinion.

Some are better prepared than others. Radio Liberty has websites in almost all of the languages, complete with podcasts; its Kazakh service has a blog to boot. Voice of America's Uzbek TV programs have a YouTube channel and a Facebook presence. And Kremlin's Voice of Russia plans to take its Uzbek and Kyrgyz services online. This growth in Net users will also offer a reach-boosting opportunity for NGOs that provide news analysis, such as IWRP and Eurasianet (the latter will likely follow the former's example and expand beyond Russian and into local languages).

As to how, some recent studies might offer a hint. People in BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are using mobile web to access primarily not information but entertainment, according to a Nielsen Media study.

One possible format worth emulating then is that of the HuffingtonPost, a decidedly political website that mixes serious reports with entertainment news and the latest in celebrity lifestyle. On the other hand, research by Andrew Odlyzko, a well-known Internet expert, suggests a different approach. Odlyzko found that content is not king: People have always used a new technology not because it offered content, but rather because it connected them with others. In practical terms, that would mean a Craigslist in Kazakh or Uzbek might be as valuable as a HuffingtonPost in those tongues.

With millions more going on line in Central Asia in the near future, an opportunity opens up for the U.S., the EU and Japan as well. The G7 could help boost civil society discourse in the region by providing connectivity that is not vulnerable to censorship, thus ensuring a level playing field for all viewpoints.