Listening to Contrarian Voices on Iran

Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty conducted a fascinating poll of Iranian voters prior to Friday's presidential election. Published as an op-ed in today's Washington Post, it concludes that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's official triumph isn't as outlandish as some think. Three weeks ago, the Iranian president was leading by a 2-1 margin, according to this poll.

Whether or not the poll accurately reflects what happened on election day -- the authors are credible; Doherty for instance is from the New America Foundation. They say the poll was financed by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund -- it suggests that caution is in order for those convinced of rigging.

For an excellent take on what the election says about Iran's ultra-emboldened power structure, have a look at this piece by New York Times executive editor Bill Keller and reporter Michael Slackman. Keller is reporting in Tehran.

While leading contender Mir Hosain Mousavi spent the last several weeks alarming powerful clerics by challenging social mores and urging his followers to take to the streets, Ahmadinejad has continued his careful cultivation of supreme leader Ali Khamenei. He has made himself the indispensibly "shrewd and ruthless front man for [Iran's] clerical, military and political elite," Keller and Slackman write.

The Associated Press is making much of Khamenei's order today for the Guardian Council to evaluate Mousavi's charges of rigging. AP writers Anna Johnson and Ali Akbar Dareini call the move "stunning." Read the text. To my ear, it sounds equally possible as an off-handed sop to Mousavi.