Watching the Pakistan Army
By appearances, the Pakistan Army has at last recognized the grave threat facing it and the secular government. There are no independent eye-witness accounts of the actual fighting in the Swat Valley and Buner. But there are reports on the Taliban digging in within the city of Mingora and elsewhere, as the PrairiePundit notes.
The BBC is often the best reporting from the region. Here is a BBC video report.
Will the Army dislodge the Taliban entirely from Northwest Frontier Province? Over at Israpundit, Salim Mansur argues that Pakistan is already "more or less a Taliban state." At Op-Ed News, Michael Collins labels concerns of a Taliban state in Pakistan "The Big Con." With respect, both of these views are seriously misled.
As discussed previously at O&G, Pakistan is nowhere near "a Taliban state." In addition, the threat is not that the Taliban captures power in a frontal assault, which appears to be the only way these pundits-from-afar can imagine such a change of government taking place. Instead, the risk is that, over time (it took two years for the Taliban to manage this during the 1990s in much-less-difficult Afghanistan), the Taliban captures more and more territory; long-ago-trained militants living in villages and towns across the Punjab start their own anti-state activities; and there is a tipping point at which important elements of the Army simply turns.
Why would middle-ranking Army officers and jawans tip this way? Because they would regard such as move as them taking power. They would be fooled, as were countless Afghans, by Taliban promises of power-sharing.
The BBC is often the best reporting from the region. Here is a BBC video report.
Will the Army dislodge the Taliban entirely from Northwest Frontier Province? Over at Israpundit, Salim Mansur argues that Pakistan is already "more or less a Taliban state." At Op-Ed News, Michael Collins labels concerns of a Taliban state in Pakistan "The Big Con." With respect, both of these views are seriously misled.
As discussed previously at O&G, Pakistan is nowhere near "a Taliban state." In addition, the threat is not that the Taliban captures power in a frontal assault, which appears to be the only way these pundits-from-afar can imagine such a change of government taking place. Instead, the risk is that, over time (it took two years for the Taliban to manage this during the 1990s in much-less-difficult Afghanistan), the Taliban captures more and more territory; long-ago-trained militants living in villages and towns across the Punjab start their own anti-state activities; and there is a tipping point at which important elements of the Army simply turns.
Why would middle-ranking Army officers and jawans tip this way? Because they would regard such as move as them taking power. They would be fooled, as were countless Afghans, by Taliban promises of power-sharing.
Labels: afghanistan, nawaz sharif, pakistan, swat, taliban, zardari
4 Comments:
Please check Debka file - close to Israeli intelligence and their telling article: Pakistan hangs back from major Swat offensive, talks secretly to Taliban.
Link: http://www.debka.com/index1.php
Didn't we all know this will happen one way or another?
This post has been linked for the HOT5 Daily 5/11/2009, at The Unreligious Right
UNRR -- thanks for the listing. Bengal Under Attack -- I took the initiative of checking out the Debka report with trusted friends in Pakistan. While we do not have exceptionally good on the sport reporting, the Debka article does seem to be fairly far of the mark.
Steve,
All I will say it wait and see. I live here in the neighbourhood - you may have trusted friends in Pakistan, we now how it is to trust Pakistan.
Patience and watch.
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