Obama: The Wrong Interlocutors

President Obama will meet tomorrow with the leaders of what are, in terms of security, the two most crucial nations on the planet. Neither of the two men -- Pakistan's Asif Zardari and Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai -- are fond of Taliban-like politics, nor militants. But they also are utterly weak figures lacking the political support to stand on their own two feet, and are disrepected by stronger forces around them. So one can be cheered at the administration's continued support of the two countries' attempts at democracy. But in the end, a reduction of the threat of a Taliban takeover of the region depends -- as it always has -- on the Pakistan Army.

In today's Washington Post, my friend Ahmed Rashid correctly notes that the Taliban threat is not isolated or overstated, as some claim; at the New American Foundation, for instance, Peter Bergen argues that concerns about this threat have risen to the level of "hyperventilation." Rashid writes compellingly that Pakistan is "on the brink of chaos," with militants cultivated by the Army's InterServices Intelligence directorate present and strong in all four of the country's provinces.

In a story borrowing from his book, The Inheritance, David Sanger at the New York Times reports that U.S. officials remain worried about the integrity of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Could some of the fissile material or even a bomb get lost? That's the fear.

Simon Cameron-Moore at Reuters has made much of the fact that the specter of one's demise can concentrate the mind; this is in the way of explanation of why Pakistan's Army is suddenly on the march in Buner and Swat. Yet, it is notable that Pakistan allowed the Taliban such a foothold that this mighty army -- believe me, the Pakistan Army is a serious force -- is compeled to fight door to door to dislodge them, as Zahid Hussain is reporting in the Times of London. Reuters' Junaid Khan reported today from the field that hundreds of civilians are fleeing, implying that more trouble is on the way.

I personally don't see how the situation gets turned around in the short or the medium term.