Dima's Moment
Dmitri Medvedev is trying desperately to recover from failing his first test as Russia's president: After suffering a severe case of deer-in-the-headlights 11 days ago, and leaving it to Vladimir Putin to blow the trumpet of war against Georgia from the Olympics in Beijing, Medvedev now is practicing a swagger, a sneer, and presidential gutter talk.
When Medvedev was with French President Nicolas Sarkozy a few days ago, he managed to form his lawyerly mouth into the words "bastards" and "hoodlums." In another setting, he threatened a "crushing response" to any future uprising such as the Georgians displayed. After all, the Georgians were people who got "idiotic ideas in their heads."
I have been predicting that Medvedev's performance will lead to his replacement on the 2012 presidential ticket. Putin surely won't tolerate a leader indecisive at the moment of truth, and will find someone else to run (I'm among those who believe that Putin wants to rule from the prime minister's seat so as not to have to keep leaving the seat of power every eight years, which under the constitution he would have to do as president).
But Medvedev has clearly seen the error of his ways. Perhaps he's still working himself into the role, and will yet emerge as the type of naturally tough leader that Russians have come to expect.
If his heart fails again, however, he clearly will be one-term Dima, another loser from the 2008 war in Georgia.
When Medvedev was with French President Nicolas Sarkozy a few days ago, he managed to form his lawyerly mouth into the words "bastards" and "hoodlums." In another setting, he threatened a "crushing response" to any future uprising such as the Georgians displayed. After all, the Georgians were people who got "idiotic ideas in their heads."
I have been predicting that Medvedev's performance will lead to his replacement on the 2012 presidential ticket. Putin surely won't tolerate a leader indecisive at the moment of truth, and will find someone else to run (I'm among those who believe that Putin wants to rule from the prime minister's seat so as not to have to keep leaving the seat of power every eight years, which under the constitution he would have to do as president).
But Medvedev has clearly seen the error of his ways. Perhaps he's still working himself into the role, and will yet emerge as the type of naturally tough leader that Russians have come to expect.
If his heart fails again, however, he clearly will be one-term Dima, another loser from the 2008 war in Georgia.
Labels: georgia, medvedev, Putin, putin's labyrinth, Russia, south ossetia
7 Comments:
Well, Medvedev seems to take his cues from Putin, but you suggest that either compliance or slow reaction time may not be all that Putin wants in a president.
Today in the Times Chivers writes indirectly about the potential for what I think of as "inter-ethnic reprisals" owing to the marauding bands of paramilitary thugs, Russian soldiers, etc. who are preying on Georgian ethnics in places like Zugdidi and Gori metropolitan area. Russia may well welcome endless reprisals and revenge violence of an inter-ethnic nature.
An explosive and hard-to-control outcome of this little war could be a new manifestation of Transcaucasian inter-ethnic violence that will be hard to control, and, ultimately, devestating to the region and Georgia in particular.
I hope when you say you draw the line on Putin (as he is perceived by you to countenance murder in policy and business) that this holds true for you on Bush and the US also. Is murder easier to believe of Putin than of Bush? How valid would the same accusation be when levied against Bush and seen through Russian eyes (never mind Iraqi, Iranian, Aghani)? If one only looks at the powers the Bush camp has snatched from 'the people', how it has hyped the war on terrorism for its own gains, at how the US has fought the communist threat in democratic countries and caused the murder of thousand of innocent citizens (never mind the wars for oil), we all know the gloves are off on both sides. Is Bush any less admirable in that light? Certainly Bush is not erudite in any way, but that surely makes his acesendency all the more surprising until of course you realise that there is no need to talk quietly. In fact no need to talk at all to an electorate for whom the death of hundreds of thousands of Islamic forigners is 'The American Way',. All you need is the big stick.
And let's not kid ourselves, the national imperialistic tendencies of Russia are as likely to disappear as those of the USA.
(p.s. exuse me if this sounds like a bit of a rant).
Steve, what you said seems inherently contradictory. If Dima is put in place to allow Vlad to continue ruling, then isn't he going to be weaker by definition? It seems to me the more immediate problem for both of them is, when an agreement of the Russian government with the presidency of the EU is not or cannot be enforced on the ground (i.e., the military withdrawal from Georgia proper starting Monday), is anyone in full command? How does one do serious business with such a government?
Russell I agree. On the 6th of June Nato and the EU made their thoughts known regarding Russia's peace keepers http://euobserver.com/9/26283/?rk=1
and were none too plussed regarding Medviediev proposed treaty http://euobserver.com/13/26556
The proposed Russian treaty is not only a great diversionary PR tactic but also another means by which Russia wants to exact defference from the West. Meanwhile Russia will continue fanning the flames round this Caucassian powder keg.
@Adthelad,
Levine is talking about something very specific. He's clearly saying "murder of his/its own people" as a part of the political competition. Such competition is vicious in all of the G7 countries. Berlusconi vs. Prodi, Aznar vs Zapatero, Bush vs Kerry. Expect to see a lot of that viciousness in the current US election campaign between now and November. What sets Russia apart is that murder if used in the political competition. We are not even talking about murders of dissidents such as Politkovskaya. We are talking murders within the political elite: killings of members of the parliament, CEOs of largest state companies, deputy chairman of the Central Bank, deputy chairman of a republic's Supreme Court, even FSB generals and people who had been close to Putin. You can Google Yuri Shchekochikhin, Andrey Kozlov,Khasan Yandiyev, Anatoly Trofimov, Roman Tsepov. In the civilized world, murder is not part of the toolbox.
As to what a country has done to other countries, no country is an angel. You just need to look back far enough to see a lot of dark pages in the history of any country.
To adthelad:
What's Bush got to do, got to do with it? Last time I checked, this was a blog concerning Russia, not Bush or the US government. If you want a blog that tracks the misdeeds of the US government, I'm sure there are thousands out there for you to choose from. At the risk of using a cliche, two wrongs don't make a right. George Bush didn't force the Russians to invade Georgia. Is the US gov't hypocritical? Yes. Was Georgia stupid for starting this? Absolutely, but that doesn't justify Russia's reaction. The thing that kills me about this whole thing is that Russia has the nerve to claim they are acting out of concern for Ossetians independence. Ha! One thing the Russians certainly don't give a damn about is any of the border countries' independence. Das ist klar!
PK Ryan
Hi folks. Sorry for the long delay. Petr and Anonymous seem to have replied to Adthelad. ECC: It is unclear what Putin sees in a president, but it seems to me that he took his time choosing and announcing his choice in part because he wanted to make sure that his policies would be carried out and, short of that, whomever was president was comfortable with a strong prime minister. My opinion is informed for how Putin himself was selected by Yeltsin and his circle. They specifically rejected Stepashin for promotion from prime minister to Yeltsin's successor because he wasn't up to genuinely ruling. Of course, those were different times and there was no Putin sitting in the prime minister's chair to watch. But I still think that there is reason to believe that Putin would value having Medvedev behave like a traditional Russian president. Putin would have his space and influence. But it should be Medvedev rolling out the troops when Putin is out of town, and not relying on Putin giving orders by remote control in Beijing. Thanks for the remarks.
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