Arranged Marriage
The next worse thing to a politician deciding for you that he's going to be your leader is your neighbor deciding who is going to be your leader.
That's the situation in Georgia, and why I think, unlike some other commentators, that Russia won't likely succeed -- now that the actual shooting has been halted -- in ousting President Mikheil Saakashvili.
Across the former Soviet Union, ordinary people don't decide who is president. Cabals of powerful people -- regional strongmen, spy agencies, billionaire businessmen, old Soviet apparachiks -- decide among themselves. They say, "Hey Dima, you be president. It's good for the gang." When the voters go to the polls, Dima magically receives 88%.
That method of selection would include Vladimir Putin, his successor Dmitri Medvedev, plus almost all the presidents of the Caucasus and Central Asia. The exception is Ukraine and the Baltics, which have reasonably authentic elections, and do kick out the rascals when so moved.
Lots of times the majority of voters actually favor the winner, but that's besides the point.
The leaders of the two breakaway regions of Georgia that are currently in the news are in power specifically because they are favored by Moscow. In other words, at home in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, it's no shame to be a stooge of Moscow. It's the same in Chechnya, as we've
discussed previously on O and G -- President Ramzan Kadyrov is a delighted instrument of Russian power.
Putin tried to choose Ukraine's leader, but it backfired, which is how Viktor Yushchenko was elected. It's similar in Georgia. The contempt of the Kremlin toward Georgians is equalled by the Georgians toward the Kremlin.
So that, even if Saakashvili is despised by some other Georgian politicians, none would get anywhere near Russia. It would be the kiss of political death.
If Saakaskvili is removed prematurely, for whatever reason -- which as I say I do not expect -- look for the rise of an equally nationalist Georgian leader, perhaps quieter, less egotistical, but still anti-Russian.
Those are Georgian politics.
That's the situation in Georgia, and why I think, unlike some other commentators, that Russia won't likely succeed -- now that the actual shooting has been halted -- in ousting President Mikheil Saakashvili.
Across the former Soviet Union, ordinary people don't decide who is president. Cabals of powerful people -- regional strongmen, spy agencies, billionaire businessmen, old Soviet apparachiks -- decide among themselves. They say, "Hey Dima, you be president. It's good for the gang." When the voters go to the polls, Dima magically receives 88%.
That method of selection would include Vladimir Putin, his successor Dmitri Medvedev, plus almost all the presidents of the Caucasus and Central Asia. The exception is Ukraine and the Baltics, which have reasonably authentic elections, and do kick out the rascals when so moved.
Lots of times the majority of voters actually favor the winner, but that's besides the point.
The leaders of the two breakaway regions of Georgia that are currently in the news are in power specifically because they are favored by Moscow. In other words, at home in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, it's no shame to be a stooge of Moscow. It's the same in Chechnya, as we've
discussed previously on O and G -- President Ramzan Kadyrov is a delighted instrument of Russian power.
Putin tried to choose Ukraine's leader, but it backfired, which is how Viktor Yushchenko was elected. It's similar in Georgia. The contempt of the Kremlin toward Georgians is equalled by the Georgians toward the Kremlin.
So that, even if Saakashvili is despised by some other Georgian politicians, none would get anywhere near Russia. It would be the kiss of political death.
If Saakaskvili is removed prematurely, for whatever reason -- which as I say I do not expect -- look for the rise of an equally nationalist Georgian leader, perhaps quieter, less egotistical, but still anti-Russian.
Those are Georgian politics.
Labels: georgia, medvedev, Putin, putin's labyrinth, Russia, saakashvili
11 Comments:
Or the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
It's worked for the US for decades now.
I expect to see Saakashvilli go because it is a stated aim in the Russian press - and therefore must happen.
Ruminator ruminated so deeply he's lost me altogether. Moscow has a nice short-term victory: a weakened Georgia with a chastened president, a West demonstrated to be inconstant and powerless. Let that be an object lesson for all of the FSU.
Up until recently, there was significant opposition against Saakashvili inside Georgia because of his belligerence, impetuousness and cronyism. Some even argued that a more accommodating policy towards Moscow would be more effective, including in regaining the separatist territories. Russia had continued to enjoy tremendous soft power in Georgia. Now all of that is gone as a result of military action.
Saakashvili has been proven right. Russia is Georgia's enemy, not friend. Unless Moscow is prepared to install its own stooge, make Georgia a garrison state, and be mired in the south Caucasus as in the north, then removing Saakashvili would allow Georgians to elect a leader who may be more effective and determined after this war.
Better to consolidate this victory and wait for Saakashvili to make the next mistake. Question is what will the West do?
Georgia is learning what Poland learned - ultimately, the only guarantor of your safety as a small -to-medium sized independent nation bordering Russia is a combination of a weak Russia (Time of Troubles; 1990's) and your own strong armed forces. Having western "allies" just isn't enough, though perhaps the formation of an alliance or pact to counter the bear, comprised by the countries which border it... imagine if all the pipelines transiting out of Russia were simultaneously turned off the moment Russian troops crossed the Georgian border.
Agree that Russia will not attempt to install its own stooge and that Saakashvili will get an initial political boost. But over time, the Georgian population may come to rethink whether a policy of poking the bear is the best approach. Like it or not, Georgia has a border with Russia and the U.S. is far away. So it is not inconceivable that down the road, the Georgians themselves decide that a change in leadership and a slightly more accommodating policy towards its neighbor to the north is called for.
I strongly believe, Steve, that Saakashvili will not only stay in power but Georgians (especially those who liked him before, unlike his foes who will continue to disapprove of everything he says and does) will make a national favorite of theirs, particularly if we have any luck with regards to joining NATO.... there's no way they'll let him go because very few Georgians consider that they've lost in the conflict. Not yet anyway.
Also, with all of the media attention on this tiny country, the Georgian ego (every small country has it, I think) has been altered.
There are a few other posts that are very interesting on the current crisis. Atlantic has a strong one:
http://thecurrent.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/the-advantage-of-the-first-mov.php
There's also an interesting analysis in The American Lawyer from March on Saakashvili's strong ties to the U.S. legal community and his crackdown on opposition groups. It's at: http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2008/08/georgian-confli.html
Saakashvilli is probably done for. Many Georgians think he did not do enough to get strong allies for Georgia before taking on the Russian bear. On the other hand, I fully expect that his replacement will be even more anti-Russian than Saakashvilli. But chastened. I doubt Russia cares if you are anti-Russian, as long as you do not interfere with Russia's regional objectives, and it is unlikely that any Georgian leader will have the nerve to do so again for many, many years.
Russia appears to have decided, in the case of Georgia, that if they cannot be loved they will settle for fear. Fear is sufficient for obtaining their objective (i.e., a Georgia which will not interfere with their regional objectives). Consider it mission accomplished. Whether Saakashvilli is removed by Georgians or not, the notion that Georgia will return to giving the thumb to Russia should be vanquished thoroughly. Aerial bombardments and total military defeat tend to rather chasten a nation...
I gotta say I still don't see how Saakashvilli doesn't face another challenge to his authority by the end of the year. And if he does, how he'll survive it when he blew it this badly.
It'd be nice if Spain released the evidence against the Russian organized crime figures who were arrested earlier this summer. This evidence would show the true face of the regime that's running Russia. Per Jamestown Foundation report, citing Spanish media:
As the Spanish newspaper ABC reported on July 3, [Judge] Garzon realized “how delicate this investigation is in view of its international context” and ordered that the results of the probe be kept secret so as to prevent leaks of information and protect the investigators. ABC described what it suggested might be the most ticklish aspect of the case: “The police gained access to conversations in which the detained ringleaders … named high-ranking representatives of the Russian authorities, not only from the government, but also from the military, as guarantors for the unimpeded realization of shady deals,” the newspaper wrote. “ABC’s sources explain that the mafiosi sometimes communicated directly with these high-ranking officials from their country and even mentioned them by name in order to assure their interlocutors that they would achieve their goals” (ABC, July 3).
This appears to be the original ABC article, can anyone translate it? Here it is:
Los mafiosos rusos ponían a altos cargos de su país como garantía de sus negocios
http://www.abc.es/hemeroteca/historico-03-07-2008/abc/Nacional/los-mafiosos-rusos-ponian-a-altos-cargos-de-su-pais-como-garantia-de-sus-negocios_1641978080662.html
What dentist said; reality has a way of eventually intruding even into tribal emotions. If the gang running Georgia want to prosper they've got to look at how Finland got by during the Cold War - that is, leave the bear alone and he'll leave you alone and let you get rich.
Putin should have no objection to Georgia, or rather its rulers, getting rich and he's clever enough to tell them this (ie offer em carrots as well as sticks). After all, that pipeline aint gonna cut Russia's world market share significantly. Just so long as they do as they're told when Russia needs them to (eg if they're trying to hold the eastern Europeans to ransom) and they don't let other powers use them as catspaws.
Actually, the Abkhazian presidential election backfired against Russian meddling. Kind of surprising, given that they are even more dependent on Russian goodwill than Ukraine, but it happens.
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