Anything Goes In Russia: What a President Obama or McCain Should Do
John McCain said it best the other day, quoted by The Washington Post's David Broder: "We have to deal with them, negotiate with them, especially in light of their hoard of petrodollars. But we can't sit by and watch a country murder people in England."
McCain was referring to the 2006 murder of KGB defector Alexander Litvinenko. As you recall, someone slipped a nuclear isotope into Litvinenko's tea at a London hotel, and Britain has filed murder charges against another former Russian intelligent agent who's now a member of the country's Parliament. Moscow refuses to extradite the man, whose name is Andrei Lugovoi.
Much is made of Russia's muscular attitude surrounding its oil. As McCain suggested, the rise of oil prices has given Russian leaders Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev a megaphone abroad -- where the world largely ignored Russia when it was down economically through the 1990s, it now feels almost obligated to give Moscow an ear because of the petro-leverage it exerts, especially in Europe. That the Russians appear again to be pushing a Western oil company out the door -- this time BP -- seems somewhat troubling to the market. But, since other oil companies have had their assets squeezed previously, no one is shocked. It seems more like, Well, there the Russians go again. That reaction is appropriate. But using the leverage of its energy resources for political gain in Europe is another matter.
I am often asked who I think would handle Russia better starting next year -- Obama or McCain. I reply that both would do well. Whether one comes from right of center or left of center, one will reach the same place, which is that Russia is going to pursue interests that are contrary to the West's. That is especially the case in oil.
One thing I learned over again during the last 18 months or so in researching Putin's Labyrinth is that, when Russia pursues its interests, its approach is "anything goes." That is, Russia will go to any length to achieve its aims. That's why, when someone decided to murder Alexander Litvinenko, he or she did not order him pushed off a subway platform or shot with a pistol; it was decided that he would be poisoned with a nuclear isotope.
When the next president is sitting in front of Russian interlocutors, he cannot underestimate Moscow. Because in its view, anything goes.
McCain was referring to the 2006 murder of KGB defector Alexander Litvinenko. As you recall, someone slipped a nuclear isotope into Litvinenko's tea at a London hotel, and Britain has filed murder charges against another former Russian intelligent agent who's now a member of the country's Parliament. Moscow refuses to extradite the man, whose name is Andrei Lugovoi.
Much is made of Russia's muscular attitude surrounding its oil. As McCain suggested, the rise of oil prices has given Russian leaders Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev a megaphone abroad -- where the world largely ignored Russia when it was down economically through the 1990s, it now feels almost obligated to give Moscow an ear because of the petro-leverage it exerts, especially in Europe. That the Russians appear again to be pushing a Western oil company out the door -- this time BP -- seems somewhat troubling to the market. But, since other oil companies have had their assets squeezed previously, no one is shocked. It seems more like, Well, there the Russians go again. That reaction is appropriate. But using the leverage of its energy resources for political gain in Europe is another matter.
I am often asked who I think would handle Russia better starting next year -- Obama or McCain. I reply that both would do well. Whether one comes from right of center or left of center, one will reach the same place, which is that Russia is going to pursue interests that are contrary to the West's. That is especially the case in oil.
One thing I learned over again during the last 18 months or so in researching Putin's Labyrinth is that, when Russia pursues its interests, its approach is "anything goes." That is, Russia will go to any length to achieve its aims. That's why, when someone decided to murder Alexander Litvinenko, he or she did not order him pushed off a subway platform or shot with a pistol; it was decided that he would be poisoned with a nuclear isotope.
When the next president is sitting in front of Russian interlocutors, he cannot underestimate Moscow. Because in its view, anything goes.
Labels: Gazprom, litvinenko, medvedev, oil, Politkovskaya, Putin, putin's labyrinth, Russia
2 Comments:
I have read your blog and listened to you and the "anything goes" theme regarding Russia is recurrent. I am not a Red Basher, but it would seem to me that a nation that truly practices that paradigm and does not play by the rules of the game, and then is handed unimaginable wealth and resources, can be a very dangerous nation. What does 'anything’ mean? We know it means murder, even on a scale of hundreds or thousands. What if their national interests butt squarely against our own? How far would they go? I could easily see a very, very violent, even catastrophic outcome. I see us back at the MAD, (Mutually Assured Destruction) scenario. I see only the consequence of destruction as sufficient motivation to get them to back down.
Am I overly gloomy? To me 'anything goes' means, 'I will never loose.' No give-and-take. No compromise. They now have the means and the bravado to engage in another arms race only a race without rules. Is this the Russian leadership mindset? What can a civil society do to protect itself against such an aggressor, especially when he is so popular at home?
Welcome Ed! For O and G readers, Ed is an old college buddy, a paramedic up near Yosemite.
In response, I'm not sure where this leads us. We only know that is Russia's style. What does it mean when Putin says let's re-establish military relations with Cuba for example? That's a direct response to the missile defense in the Czech Republic.
As you know, I don't regard Russia as an enemy, nor think we are headed into a new Cold War. But I do think that Russia is current in a mode of demonstrating to the world that it can't be pushed around.
Thanks for the comment and best, Steve
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