In the Interrogation Room with Gazprom

Police have used the tactic for centuries -- good cop, bad cop. After a few hours of roughing up by a nasty interrogator, a suspect warms to the coffee and banter brought by a seemingly sympathetic officer. Then the suspect throws himself on the mercy of the court.

One sees at least a bit of that strategy in the tandem of Russia's Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. After years of nastiness by Putin, Europeans were feeling warm and fuzzy after Friday's European Union annual summit, where they were treated to Medvedev's good cop approach: "being nice to them," as The New York Times' Stephen Castle described it.

I raise this not because it's surprising -- a lot of us see Medvedev as Putin with a nice face; we shall watch how Europe responds.

But it's interesting in combination with a great example of journalistic initiative (also on Friday) by the Financial Times' Carola Hoyos and Ed Crooks. It was a strong email interview the pair managed to land with Gazprom's gonzo CEO Alexei Miller. The paper devoted space on page one, in which Miller says that Gazprom will eclipse Exxon and become "the most influential [company] in the energy business," and dismisses OPEC as no longer relevant. It ran a second article on page three, in addition to a full transcript on-line, in which Miller expands on what's been a self-evident strategy toward which foreign oil companies get new energy deals in Russia: those willing to help Gazprom in its quest to become "a global player on the energy market."

Miller also defended his recent prediction that world oil prices will hit $250 a barrel.

While Russian energy titans are prone to flights of bloated rhetoric, this is not empty talk. Given its vast stores of natural gas, Gazprom may already be the most important energy player in Europe, and Miller says it is striking new deals ranging from Nigeria to North America. In the U.S., Miller is interested in the talk of new natural gas pipelines in Alaska.

In terms of big geopolitics, Miller predicts outright that South Stream, Russia's weapon to defeat Washington in the natural gas pipeline war in Europe, will definitely be built. In the remote chance that the U.S.-backed Nabucco pipeline is also erected, he says, it will pose no threat to Russia's South Stream.

So O and G readers should look for more, not less, Russian assertiveness in global energy. It will simply be quieter.

Photo: Independentman

Rights: Creative Commons