Meet the New Boss
Much ink has been spilled in recent months parsing the statements of Russia's new president, Dmitri Medvedev, with the aim of deciphering whether he will be more democratic than Vladimir Putin.The result has been in the eye of the beholder -- those wishing for greater political participation from below have seen a suppressed democrat; others have said that, regardless of Medvedev's own preferences, he will be strait-jacketed by the presence of his predecessor in the prime minister's suite. No one, as far as I can tell, has predicted a traditional, strong Russian leader in the making.
History is replete with examples of seemingly meek gentlemen morphing into full-throated autocrats (among them Pakistan's Zia ul-Haq, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, and further back, Kaiser Wilhelm II). So such a future cannot be ruled out in Medvedev's case.
But, at risk of reading someone else's mind, I think that Putin did not select his protege with that history bothering him; rather it was precisely because of that precedence that he passed over Medvedev's chief rival, Sergei Ivanov, who as a former spy himself has many friends in Russia's powerful security services. Putin selected Medvedev, a former law professor, for his loyalty, and his belief that Medvedev would be the least troubled by Putin's continued strong role in political affairs.
For fans of Robert Caro's magisterial The Power Broker, Putin wants to be Russia's Robert Moses. He wants to have long service, calling the shots regardless of who sits in the Kremlin.
Do not look for Russia to democratize in any western sense, not for some time in any case. Rather, Medvedev's role will be largely economic -- attempting to broaden the boom away from energy.
On foreign policy, to the degree he has any latitude, he seems likely to speak more softly. But the Gazprom-led economic march into Europe will continue. More worryingly at the moment, do not expect any precipitate withdrawal of the chin-out Russian activities in Georgia.
Photo: World Economic Forum
Rights: Creative Commons
Labels: kremlin, medvedev, Putin, robert caro, robert moses, Russia
3 Comments:
So, Steve, what prevents your modern brethren from reporting that the emperor has no clothes or Potemkin's village has no backs, when the puppeteer, strings and puppet are all in plain sight? (I have the same question of Russia experts.)
The difference between Medvedev's case and the other leaders you cite as having emerged from obscurity is all their predecessors died (or in Zia's case was killed by him) and were not making hour-long speeches and keeping prominent public office. Even Deng Xiao Peng did not do what Putin is doing.
Hi ECC: your logic is correct; I had not considered the role of death in the emergence of the dictator within. As for my colleagues, no comment. Thanks for the remark and best, Steve
ECC:
Your logic is valid only if we assume that Medvedev has emerged as the leader. But he hasn't. Read what Dmitry Peskov, Mr Putin's spokesman says: “Medvedev will be the head of state. But of course Putin is not going anywhere. As prime minister, he will be implementing the tasks he set out as president over the past eight years.”
Putin is staying on as the de facto leader, which renders titles meaningless. He could even choose the title of, say, deputy minister of education and still be the leader.
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