Steve LeVine covers foreign affairs for BusinessWeek. He previously was correspondent for Central Asia and the Caucasus for The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for 11 years. His first book, The Oil and the Glory, a history of the former Soviet Union through the lens of oil, was published in October 2007. Putin’s Labyrinth, his new book, profiles Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians. It was released this week.

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner



A Blog on Russia, Central Asia and
the Caucasus

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Latest Score in Love versus War

In recent months, Italy’s ENI has seemed to have hit upon the winning formula in Big Oil’s battle for survival against the march of petro-states across the globe. ENI chairman Paolo Scaroni’s approach has been simple – jump in bed with your adversary. So you have had ENI saddling up with Russia’s Gazprom, Hugo Chavez’s PDVZA, and most recently Qatar Petroleum.

Scaroni’s strategy has been the polar opposite and, so far, more successful than ExxonMobil’s confrontational style toward the more assertive petro-states such as Russia and Venezuela.

But a scoop by Guy Chazan in today’s Wall Street Journal shows that co-habitation goes only so far. Turkmenistan, for instance, is so miffed with ENI that it refuses to issue visas to its senior executives. That’s important, because Turkmenistan is one of the world’s only largely untapped petro-states welcoming exploration offers from Big Oil. Chevron, BP and others have put much effort into winning access to fields there.

Based on ENI’s record, don’t be surprised if Scaroni himself tries to swoop into Turkmenistan to smooth over the situation.

Photo: Chrispitality
Rights: Creative Commons

Labels: , , , ,

posted by Steve at

7 Comments:

Blogger Candy Gourlay said...

love that picture! is it you?

April 23, 2008 4:19 PM  
Blogger Steve said...

hahaha. Thanks Candy.

April 23, 2008 9:27 PM  
Blogger The Ruminator said...

Steve - the ENI visa issue is caused by ENI's refusal to speak to the Turkmen's and ask for the Dentist's blessing when they acquired Burren Energy.

If it were children fighting it would be quite amusing - he wouldn't talk to me so I won't let him play with my toys. However, its marginally more important than that.

April 24, 2008 12:23 AM  
Anonymous James said...

Very interesting post, Steve - no question that Scaroni is matched by few others for "jumping into bed" with hostile states (Total's Christophe de Margerie is quite a character also).

But is it really just a question of confrontation vs. appeasement, especially when the expropriating state is breaking the law?

I'd also dispute that Eni's strategy is always successful - it certainly isn't working for BP, which continues to be in painful denial over the latest siege. We recall that Eni and Enel became the very first foreign companies to purchase Yukos assets in an auction (whose title could become illegitimate depending on the outcome of litigation). However, after EniNeftgaz paid $5.8 billion for the Yukos assets and picked up 20% of Gazpromneft, the Russians may still decide to pull the call option - paying the Italians just $4.6 billion.

http://www.robertamsterdam.com/2007/10/gazprom_takes_back_eni_and_ene.htm

Hey, if paying $1.2 billion is the acceptable fee to Eni for playing the role of asset launderer for the Kremlin, then so be it - but I'm not sure that qualifies as success.

Also I would note that Rex Tillerson's efforts to stand up to the Russians has so far kept the company safe on Sakhalin-1, unlike Royal Dutch Shell over at Sakhalin-2.

April 24, 2008 3:21 PM  
Blogger Steve said...

Welcome James. As you well point out, neither of the competing survival models -- appeasement or confrontation -- has been proven. They are merely the top competing strategies among the Big Oil companies for getting through this transition period. Eni I think has been shamelessly masterful; it has not always won, that is true. But it is the most successful player in the former Soviet Union (in Russia and Kazakhstan), and has stretched the style into deals that almost no other player would do in Venezuela, too, and is also doing well in the Middle East. Though I would say that the jury is still out on whether Exxon Mobil ends up with a triumph at Sakhalin (its economic model remember counted on exporting the natural gas, not selling it domestically); and Tillerson does not quite seem to have the upper hand as yet with Hugo Chavez. Yet, as I say, Exxon Mobil's approach cannot be discounted. Let's see what happens.

In the end, success could mean simply living to fight another day.

Thanks, Steve

April 24, 2008 8:54 PM  
Blogger ECC said...

Steve - Welcome back. Finished the new book?

Which shares are you ready to buy, ENI or XOM?

April 25, 2008 7:00 AM  
Blogger Steve said...

Hi ECC. That's a hard one. I'll take a stab if you will (and what about CVX?). And the parameters -- we're talking a long-term hold? If so, I go with Eni for growth, XOM for dividends. Best Steve

April 25, 2008 7:43 AM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home