Why Russia is Winning the Pipeline War

Vladimir Putin.

That's how Russia today made another advance in one of the most important battles under way anywhere in the world at the intersection of commerce and geopolitics -- for control of the natural gas market between Central Asia and Europe. This battle will decide who dominates the European energy market, and obtains commensurate political leverage in Europe and Central Asia. Russia already supplies more than 30% of Europe's natural gas and oil.

In another example of the role of personal diplomacy in the battle, Putin was in Sofia today and signed a deal nailing down Bulgaria's role as the principal transit point for the South Stream natural gas pipeline, which is meant to cement Russia's dominance of southern Europe's gas supply.

Putin had previously used the prestige of the Kremlin to push through plans for a separate pipeline serving northern Europe, called Nord Stream. And last month, he secured the natural gas supply required to feed the two lines. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan sold a large portion of their natural gas supply for the next thirty years, and agreed to a third pipeline to take their natural gas to Europe.

One would hardly know that Russia has a competitor in this epic market battle. But it does -- the West, specifically the European Union and the U.S., which have advanced their own dual-pipeline idea. They are a proposed trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline, also starting in Turkmenistan, and hooking into a proposed Nabucco pipeline into Europe.

How is the Western effort faring? It's stalled at the starting gate. Indeed, while Putin personally jets around the world, wining, dining and flattering the presidents of other nations whose favor is required, no Western leader has invited any of them for a personal meal. The U.S. hasn't even managed to select a senior statesman to lead the effort since Thomas Pickering dropped out and decided to stay in the private sector.

If it were not for the way that post-Soviet history has been so topsy-turvy, with a winner one day ultimately losing, I'd say the battle is over. For starters, it's high time for Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov to spend some time at Camp David.

Photo: magnetbox
Rights: Creative Commons