Pickering is Out; What about Zbig?

Thomas Pickering, the senior U.S. statesman who was to lead the high-level U.S. pipeline campaign on the Caspian, has withdrawn for unspecified reasons. So the State Department has resumed its search for a supergiant diplomat to turn around the so-far struggling Western effort to blunt Russia's dominance of the European natural gas market.

On its face it's a market issue -- the control of natural gas pipelines stretching from Turkmenistan to Europe. But it also has geopolitical ramifications. If Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan can export their natural gas only through Russia, that would give Moscow enormous continued leverage over the east Caspian. And if Russia continues to control a third or more of the European natural gas market, some in the European Union fear, it could leverage that into more political influence.

What has resulted is competing pipeline strategies. Russia is well along the way to building a set of three pipelines -- one from Turkmenistan north to Russia; a second to northern Europe called Nord Stream; and a third to southern Europe called South Stream. The West's response is only on paper -- a trans-Caspian pipeline from Turkmenistan west to Turkey; and a pipeline from there to Europe called Nabucco.

So the State Department has sought to super-charge the Western effort with an eminence grise like Pickering, who currently consults for Boeing. With Pickering out, who are the remaining giants?

What about Zbigniew Brzezinski? There's no doubt about his credentials, stature and ability to get the job done. I have no idea whether Brzezinski would agree. But I'm told that such an appointment would have the unusual virtue of driving both Russia and the Bush administration insane, seeing as both have been his targets.

But the question again comes down to priorities. Are we talking politics or effectiveness?

Until then, I'm told that Undersecretary of State Reuben Jeffery will fill in, and that long-time regional expert Steven Mann will take his post as No. 2 in the Caspian envoy's office.

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