Finding An Honest Man in Big Oil
Those who follow oil seem forever doomed to be in a way like Diogenes, strolling with a lantern, looking for an honest man. There's always the nagging suspicion that one isn't getting the whole story about the state of global energy, and prices at the pump.Christophe de Margerie, the walrus-mustached CEO of France's Total, champions himself as that singular candid man. A member of a select club that's traditionally delighted in its mysteriousness, De Margerie is the much-deplored, indiscreet fellow who spills the group's secret handshake to the world.
In this case, the whiskey-swilling Frenchman has been telling the world that the oil industry has or is about to reach a peak in the volume of oil it can produce. Furthermore, he's quoted in a piece posted today by the Economist, all his brother oil bosses “think the same. It's just a question of whether we say it.” The article is worth reading.
Where the fierce debate on peak oil gets mucked up is on the geology -- has the world used up half its available oil resources or not? De Margerie neatly ducks that labyrinth by saying it's irrelevant.
What matters isn't how much oil is there, but how much can be produced. He says there simply isn't sufficient skilled manpower, technical equipment and willingness in the petro-states to produce much more than current levels of about 85 million barrels per day.
De Margerie makes a lot of sense. If one extrapolates, there will be much more motivation for fuel economy technologies, the development of non-carbon fuels, and general demand reduction. That's because, even if the West's fuel appetite is more or less stagnant, the economies of India and China are becoming hungrier and hungrier for energy. So there's going to be more competition for that somewhat limited volume of oil.
Labels: $100 oil, big oil, Caspian, oil book, peak oil, plateau oil, russia book, Total
2 Comments:
This is not a comment about this specific post. I rather have a more general question. I just discovered your blog and saw your talk for Google in Mountain View about your book. I was wondering about the stretch of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. Now if you look at a map, a stretch that would make perfect sense would be via Iran. How do you relate this to the current tensions between the US and Iran?
Welcome Red. The Iranian route has been discussed since the early 1990s. It's convenient, it takes you closer to the growth markets of Asia. But there are two reasons why it hasn't happened. The first is U.S. sanctions. But the Iranians have undermined themselves as well. Negotiators for western oil companies told me during the 1990s that Iran did not produce a significantly cheaper route when it came down to the details. Like any good trader, the Iranians looked at the estimate for the Western route, and offered just a bit less. So, all in all, the companies based in Baku decided that the southern route wasn't as economical as seemed by looking at a map.
Thanks for the comment, Steve
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