Finally, Some Sanity on Missiles
The U.S. proposal to install an anti-ballistic missile shield in eastern Europe appears unlikely to advance under the watch of its conceiver, President Bush. The new Polish government says it won't permit the shield right now because it's not clear that the next U.S. president will want it, and meanwhile it's not worth aggravating Russia.Bush wants to place components of the shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia's Vladimir Putin has opposed it, and Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski has provided his government's position in an interview with the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza. They were kindly passed on in an article yesterday by Judy Dempsey at The New York Times.
The Polish position is built on multiple levels. It's tied up with Moscow's plans to build the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, crossing the Baltic Sea and averting nations with which Russia has tense relations, like Poland.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wants Russia to reconsider Nord Stream. If the gas continues to cross Poland, Russia would find it harder to cut off the country during predictable periods of strained relations. Poland has also raised environmental concerns about installing a pipeline in the Baltic.
Labels: bush, iran, missile shield, nord stream, oil book, poland, Putin, Russia, russia book
6 Comments:
"Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wants Russia to reconsider Nord Stream. If the gas continues to cross Poland, Russia would find it harder to cut off the country during predictable periods of strained relations."
Hm. A Rusian government might consider:
A pipeline, once built, will carry gas for 30-40 years. How widely will Russia's relations with Poland fluctuate in that time? How widely will Russia's relations with the Baltic Sea fluctuate in that time?
The Baltic Sea, for instance, is unlikely to have reckless, paranoid Russophobes as its President and Prime Minister during any significant part of that 30-40 years.
I also think that the two countries are unlikely to transcend the centuries of distrust very quickly. In addition, the drivers of the pipeline are not solely the calculus of relations with Poland, but with the whole series of nations between Russia and Germany with which Moscow has strained relations.
Separately, I've long wondered about people with strong opinions such as yours not disclosing their name. I find a disconnect there.
Thanks for the comment, Anonymous.
Just stopped by to say: 'Thought provoking as always Steve'. In my gut, I want to disagree, but since you've provided the caveot that you'd be more supportive of the shield IF IT ACTUALLY WORKED -- I can't argue much. I suppose we let the Europeans worry about those incoming missles eh? It's time they do some heavy lifting. NATO just doesn't get tha love it used to get.
Anonymous?
"Russiaphobes"?
Can you think of anything in recent history -- say the last 50 years --- that might cause Polish people to develop a "phobia"?
GreatGreenHammer:
The Germans and the Russians can get over history, why can't the Poles?
"Can you think of anything in recent history -- say the last 50 years --- that might cause Polish people to develop a "phobia"?"
Well, it is a phenomenon of long standing. For instance, I know of a Polish diplomatic note to Queen Elizabeth I (1533-1603) warning her against trading with Russia, for the Russians were the enemy of civilized Europe.
In 1939, facing imminent attack from Nazi Germany, the Polish CinC dismissed the very idea of accepting any assistance from the Russians with the comment "With the Germans we lose our independence. With the Russians we lose our souls."
Jump ahead to August 1944, when a Polish poet penned the following lines as he waited for the Soviet Army to overcome the line of Panzer Divisions the Wehrmacht had deployed to the east of Warsaw during the Uprising:
"We are waiting...
We are waiting for you, red plague,
To deliver us from black death,
To be - our land first torn and quartered
Our salvation - met with horror ...
You cannot harm us! The choice is yours,
You can help us, you can deliver us
Or still delay and leave us to die...
Death is not terrible; we know how to die.
May you know, hateful savior, what death we wish you in repayment."
So, with these examples, I have to agree that strained Russian-Polish relations were developed over a very long time, going back to the expansion of Poland in the aftermath of the destruction of Kievan Rus by the Mongols in 1242, and the "regathering of Russian lands" under the Princes of Moscow subsequently.
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home