Russia's New Prime Minister

As we've discussed on this blog for many months, the likeliest Russian power scenario going forward is that Vladimir Putin steps from the presidency into the prime minister's chair. Today, Putin's chosen successor, Dmitri Medvedev, made that scenario official.

There's some commentary out there that this is Putin's way of assuring a platform to return as president. But I think we've got the power structure as it will probably play out: Medvedev as president and Putin as prime minister, a position whose powers will be increased by the rubber-stamp parliament.

Here's why -- as soon as a person steps into the president's chair, the clock begins ticking. He's limited to two, four-year terms, and Putin is on record as opposing any change in that rule. The prime minister has no such limits, so Putin could remain Russia's paramount leader for life if he so wishes. And he -- and the Kremlin-bound clans that control Russia underneath him -- seem to so wish.

For both Russia and the world, this means the same current course: in Russia itself, a state-led economic boom with limited political freedoms; and outside the country, a Gazprom-led attempt to assert Russian influence.