• Steve LeVine covers foreign affairs for Business Week. He previously was correspondent for Central Asia and the Caucasus for The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for 11 years. His first book, The Oil and the Glory, a history of the former Soviet Union through the lens of oil, was published in October 2007. Putin’s Labyrinth, his new book, profiles Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians. The updated paperback was released in April 2009.



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    A Blog on Russia, Energy, the Caspian and
    Beyond

    Friday, December 7, 2007

    Diplo-Capitalism: Bush's Clintonian Iran Strategy

    One needn't be a gene physicist to see that President Bush looks a lot like -- gulp -- former President Clinton these days. He's hosting Israeli-Palestinian talks, speaking with Syria, and now we hear that he's opened a pen-pal exchange with the mother of all totalitarians, North Korea's Kim Jong Il.

    As my former Wall Street Journal colleague Jay Solomon notes today, neo-con John Bolton hates this shift. "Our foreign policy is in free-fall at the moment," the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. and advocate of uni-polar diplomacy tells Solomon. Engaging dictators, Bolton says, will only "diminish our prestige and influence."

    Bah humbug.

    So what's next in Bush's embrace of the foreign policy he's spent seven years deriding? Adoption of Clinton's diplomatic two-step with corporate America?

    As readers of this blog know, I see one of America's most triumphant foreign policies of the last decade as the successful linking of the Caspian and Mediterranean seas through the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline. When this million-barrel-a-day came on line last year, it cemented a decade-long challenge to Russian suzerainty in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

    And it was all a joint diplomatic-commercial effort of Clinton administration officials and Big Oil, specifically BP, Pennzoil and a few other companies. It was cutting-edge stuff -- geopolitics at the intersection of diplomacy and commerce.

    Now it seems Bush is following the same tack. Today my friend Dean Rose was kind enough to pass along a transcript of Bush's news conference this week on the fresh intelligence that in fact Iran stopped seeking development of a nuclear weapon four years ago.

    Bush said he's working to get companies both in the U.S. and abroad to help persuade Iran to stop enriching uranium. One presumes Bush was talking about oil companies -- what other type of company would he be describing?

    Here's Bush's direct language when asked what's next in U.S. policy on Iran:

    "And I believe now is the time for the world to do the hard work necessary to convince the Iranians there is a better way forward. And I say, hard work -- here's why it's hard. One, many companies are fearful of losing market share in Iran to another company. It's one thing to get governments to speak out; it's another thing to convince private sector concerns that it's in our collective interests to pressure the Iranian regime economically.

    "So I spend a fair amount of time trying to convince our counterparts that they need to convince the private sector folks that it is in their interests and for the sake of peace that there be a common effort to convince the Iranians to change their ways, and that there's a better way forward."

    This is not to mock Bush but simply to note the dovetailing of long-standing foreign policy practices.

    Photo: ynse
    Rights: Creative Commons

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    posted by Steve at

    6 Comments:

    Blogger Tacitus said...

    Umm. In a word, no. I don't see it. No dovetailing. Bush is advocating that business -- and he's really talking about Euro entities (Oil Cos, sure) already in Iran) get on board with sanctions.
    The nugget graf: "It's one thing to get governments to speak out; it's another thing to convince private sector concerns that it's in our collective interests to pressure the Iranian regime economically."
    This is not the same deal as Clinton was striking with Big Oil. He was saying: "it's in both of our interests -- you get a good pipeline and access to exploit fields you couldn't otherwise without dealing with Russia; we get the strategic value of an oil source free from Middle East or Russian influence."
    Clinton's approach was "win-win", economically.
    Bush approach is, typically, "we win, you lose (out on Iranian economic interests, in the short term)." Sure, somewhere down the line it may be in private companies to bring political pressure to bear on Iran to drop nukes (if they're pursuing them, or whatever). But that's not the same deal that Clinton was offering, which was much more immediate in economic rewards.

    December 7, 2007 10:18 AM  
    Blogger Steve said...

    Hi Tacitus. You are a fast responder.

    I'm with you and not. In a way Bush is moving beyond Clinton, who simply barred companies from dealing with Iran and penalized those -- U.S. and European -- that went ahead anyway. Bush wants the companies to continue that practice, but is holding out a carrot as well -- help us squeeze the Iranians so as to produce a uranium deal, and you can get the oilfields you crave.

    Thanks for the comment and best, Steve

    December 7, 2007 10:42 AM  
    Blogger Tacitus said...

    but that's the point, i guess -- the euro companies have already been moving in to iran, so bush is offering them no carrot -- they'll go in if it really matters to them and if they can cut a good deal. total has, for example. the euros really chafe at ilsa (and rightfully so, i think) and would be much more keen to disregard his call than to get dragged along with bush on another foreign policy misadventure in the middle east.

    December 7, 2007 11:33 AM  
    Blogger Steve said...

    tacitus, it seems to me that the realism of bush's plan is one matter and the motivation another. as you recall, clinton also provoked great hostility from corporate america and europe with the baku-ceyhan extravaganza. it just so happened, however, that bp wished to buy arco, so finally went along with it. big oil-europe is holding back considerably on getting in bed with iran; it's certainly not as vigorous as it is in russia, though iran has enviable oil and gas projects. therefore i'd say there is a carrot as regards the europe -- win over iran, and then pile in. best steve

    December 7, 2007 6:51 PM  
    Blogger Tacitus said...

    Friedman agrees with me, I think, or in any case doesn't think Bush's gambit is working.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/12/opinion/12friedman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

    December 12, 2007 10:24 AM  
    Blogger Steve said...

    This is a solid piece by Friedman. Totally on the mark.

    Tacitus, where have I seen you blogging before? You have your own place, right?

    Thanks for staying in touch and best Steve

    December 12, 2007 12:39 PM  

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