Trouble in Tbilisi

I've been exchanging messages with a friend in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital that until recently was the scene of bloody protests. He predicts political crisis almost regardless of what President Mikheil Saakashvili does.

Remember that Georgia is the crucial crossing point of the East-West Caspian oil route.

Why is there nothing for Saakashvili to do? I quote my American friend:

"Poverty.
GDP per capital here is $3,900.
Russia's is $12,100.
Azerbaijan's is $7,500.
Armenia's is $5,500.
Enough said."

Saakashvili has done much in terms of curbing corruption and attracting foreign investment. But, in my friend's view, Russia's economic embargo has made it impossible to truly dent the country's post-Soviet poverty. "They've sunk to just above Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan maybe, Moldova," he said.

So Saakashvili's opposition is bound to be in the streets regardless of the results of the snap January presidential elections.

Photo: Alexander Nitzsche
Rights: Creative Commons