The Down Side of Leaving the Nest

A piece in The New York Times today demonstrates that a growing general grasp of the new hard geopolitics on the Eurasian dual continent, driven by economics -- in particular oil and natural gas -- rather than the traditional movement of armies.

In the story, Adam Ellick writes that "Russian power is rapidly returning to the Baltics, only this time the weapons are oil and money, not tanks."

That's an essential point, since the United States has yet to show that it fully comprehends that the nature of conflict, at least in this part of the world, has changed under its feet (see Josh Foust's excellent latest post on the pipeline war), and that Russia with its financial muscle is leading the charge.

But there's a larger point for the small nations crusading most vigorously to be shielded from the hostilities: For the up side of independence, you have to leave the nest entirely.

Which brings us to the Baltic republics' self-serving posture on the proposed Russian-German-Dutch Nord Stream natural gas pipeline. The Balts oppose Russia's resolution for its continuous disputes with the pesky neighbors that stand between it and its European oil and natural gas customers. Russian-controlled Nord Stream would go through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

There are reasons for apprehension over the total of three new natural gas lines through which Moscow proposes to export Central Asian and Russian gas into Europe. As I'll discuss in the last stop of the book tour tomorrow and Tuesday in New York, Moscow has a record of using its petro-power for political and economic leverage.

But the Baltic states want it both ways. They want NATO and European Union protection from possible Russian aggression, but also the cheap fuel and pipeline tariffs they get as a channel for Russia's energy.

But, like the rest of Europe, they will have to fend for themselves.


Photo: Mshades
Rights: Creative Commons