Steve LeVine covers foreign affairs for BusinessWeek. He previously was correspondent for Central Asia and the Caucasus for The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for 11 years. His first book, The Oil and the Glory, a history of the former Soviet Union through the lens of oil, was published in October 2007. Putin’s Labyrinth, his new book, profiles Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians. It was released this week.

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A Blog on Russia, Central Asia and
the Caucasus

Friday, October 19, 2007

Putin's Churchillian Aspirations

Ninety-dollar-a-barrel oil is wonderful for one's self esteem, as well as for stimulating the deference of one's acquaintances. But can it earn genuine respect?

That is Vladimir Putin's challenge. His best chance of securing that much-craved legitimacy is to pull off a diplomatic miracle. One such as resolving the Iranian crisis.

His high-minded actions and statements with his Caspian Sea neighbors in Tehran this week imply that Putin recognizes this. But can he do it?

One piece of intriguing news involves Putin's meeting with Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. According to Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, Putin gave Khamenei a "message" of which the nuclear issue was a component, and that "we are now examining it."

Yesterday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad undercut Larijani by saying that Putin had not even mentioned the word "nuclear."

Still, let's take Larijani at his word. One enormous factor calling for optimism is that the two parties involved -- Russia and Iran -- would love to resolve the nuclear issue in a way that raises their own diplomatic credentials while diminishing the West's.

It's not known what Putin's message was. But we can imagine. For instance, on the difficult issue of electricity-production, he might have suggested a Russian agreement, for example, to build, supply and manage a self-contained nuclear power facility for Iran. In order to make Iran feel both safe and part of a bigger club, Putin might have suggested a comprehensive mutual defense accord building on the declaration that the Caspian republics made Tuesday. Putin definitely would have included a face-saving measure that allowed Iran to climb down on the nuclear issue without appearing to have done so.

Any agreement that gets Iran to renounce nuclear weapons-making ambitions would catapult Putin, and Russia, into a different and higher global sphere, while improving Iran's image as well.

Putin would not be spending so much diplomatic time and effort simply being a spoiler. He would receive -- and deserve -- genuine deference.

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