Putin: Final Piece in Place

President Putin has all the pieces in place now to remain Russia's ruler in name or fact as long as he wishes. But does he want to? Given Putin's habitual caution, the rush to figure out his intentions is almost wholly in vain. We probably won't know for another four years.

Putin's selection of a retirement-age loyalist as prime minister seems to be the last in a three-prong strategy. It fits into the article of faith among both Russian and foreign analysts that Putin intends to rule over Russia in one way or another for the foreseeable future. Under an eminently reasonable scenario, Putin would return to eight more years of power in 2012, when he will be just 58. He could even do another round, his supporters say, returning for a third set of terms in 2024.

Here has been the puzzle: If Putin adheres to his pledge to honor the constitution and step down following the March elections -- which he almost certainly will do -- how can he be sure that his successor, after four years of the heady experience of governing a nuclear-armed petro-power, will surrender power?

Another bit of entirely reasonable logic heard in Moscow is that Putin isn't necessarily seeking to rule the country as long as he wishes. Instead, he simply wants to give his potential rivals the impression that he wants to in order to retain the option come 2012; following this argument further, Putin also would want to keep the sharks at bay and protect his personal and business interests over the coming years.

As recently as yesterday morning, the betting money was that fellow former spy Sergei Ivanov, one of his first deputy prime ministers, had the job of succeeding Putin in the bag. But what makes sense now is that Ivanov is prong one of Putin's strategy.

The Ivanov prong meets the prerequisite of loyalty to Putin, and the probabily of no or few changes in Russian foreign and domestic policy. So he is still in the running.

The second prong is Dmitri Medvedev, who as another first deputy prime minister is another presumed Putin heir. Medvedev has also displayed unflagging loyalty to Putin, and would be his choice if he wants a more liberal Kremlin. He also remains in the race.

The trouble with both Ivanov and Medvedev, however, is that both are relatively young. They are 54 and 42, respectively.

Loyalists so far to a fault, can they truly be trusted to step down four years from now should Putin wish them to?

Hence prong three. Russia's new prime minister, Viktor Zubkov, turns 66 on Saturday. He will be 70 in 2012, not at all a young age in Russia. Such a person would arguably be more amenable to retirement, or even if he did not wish to surrender power might simply not be healthy enough to continue.

When Putin selects his successor, if it is prong three, he will be asserting a cautious strategy.

Yet that still will not answer the ultimate question -- does he intend to return to power or not? He will not tip his hand until he needs to, meaning at this time four years hence.