The Noise in the Royal House of Kazakhstan

The circus-like atmosphere continues in the first family of Kazakhstan, as President Nazarbayev has now publicly fired his billionaire second son-in-law. The upshot: there is too much noise emanating from the petro-country's royal house; something fundamental is amiss.

The fresh news is that Nazarbayev has dismissed oil tycoon Timur Kulibayev from his executive post in the country's rainy-day investment fund, the repository of much of the state's wealth. The same day, authorities said they found arms and explosives at the home of prominent surgeon Mukhtar Aliyev, the father of Nazarbayev's former first son-in-law, Rakhat Aliyev.

The developments come as the government continues to try to extradite Aliyev back to Kazakhstan from Europe on charges involving the alleged torture and disappearance of two executives at his former bank.

In addition, the country has just suspended a foreign oil consortium's development of one of the world's largest oilfields. Kulibayev, as de facto head of the country's oil industry, had to have a leading role in that decision.

Here is the first paragraph of the Reuters story: Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said on Tuesday he had sacked his influential son-in-law from a senior post managing strategic assets, in an apparent bid by the long-serving leader to further centralise power. Read Reuters story. And here is AP's account

Steve's comment: No one seemed surprised in May when son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev self-destructed. After years of public and private accusations of thuggery against fellow businessmen, Aliyev was charged with racketeering and kidnapping in connection with the disappearance of two executives of Nurbank, controlled by Aliyev and Nazarbayev's oldest daughter, Dariga. Nazarbayev fired him as ambassador to Austria, and seemed to be behindhis daughter's decision to serve him with divorce papers.

But Monday's dismissal of Kulibayev as deputy chairman of the investment fund, called Samruk, is different. Unlike the ostentatiously ambitious Aliyev, Kulibayev has always maintained a studiously low profile. In addition to being the country's most powerful oilman, he is thought to have served as the royal house's trusted money manager, controlling family investments in oil, banking, shipping and other assets.

Nazarbayev has chalked up a record of chopping off the heads of high-ranking underlings in order to shuffle power and keep it from accumulating anywhere but in his own hands, and there is the possibility that he is simply showing who is boss. Perhaps he is not happy with how the suspension of work at the Kashagan field was handled.

If so, one wonders if the president is losing his touch after the personal embarrassment over the pursuit of Aliyev, along with the international attention to the news at Kashagan. Why add tabloid-quality fuel to the fire at this time?

Kulibayev is no mere window dressing in Nazarbayev's power base, but a basic member of his team. As to the arms allegedly found at the home of Aliyev's father, the Interior Ministry announcement strains credulity. A well-known surgeon, Mukhtar Aliyev is a respected member of the Kazakhstan elite going back long before his son married into the first family.

So what is going on within the palace? In addition to his reputation as a deft balancer of power, Nazarbayev has a reputation for vindictiveness if pushed too far. It appears that more than just Rakhat Aliyev has done so.