Eight-Ball on the Caspian

Sometimes it's instructive in Caspian pipeline politics to recall the simple game of eight ball, in which players use any means to dispose of all their billiards for a chance at finally firing in the solid black ball. The first to do so wins. The upshot: it does not matter if Central Asia's oil and natural gas flows to China; the objective -- the eight ball -- is for the region to obtain as much financial, hence political, independence as possible.

In the last couple of weeks, the so-called Shanghai group of nations (Central Asia plus Russia and China) attracted much attention with a military exercise and an ostensible final agreement to complete energy pipelines from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to China.

Putting aside the military issue for now, the idea is to complete an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan to China, and build a natural gas line from Turkmenistan to the thirsty giant to the east. The former will definitely be built; the notion of such a Turkmen line has made the rounds for a long time, and we will have to wait until construction is well under way to be sure of its credibility this time. Henry Meyer's story on Bloomberg

Is this bad news for the East-West strategy promoted by Washington? Only for those fixated on the details and not the outcome. As long as the region obtains multiple export routes for its oil and natural gas, thus shedding its reliance on the monopolistic power enjoyed by Russia with its Soviet-era pipeline route, it is keeping a clear-eyed vision of the ultimate aim.

It is true that the eastern Caspian so far looks to be compromising a western component to that strategy -- current plans for a mere shipping link, and not a cross-sea pipeline, from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan into the Baku-Turkey pipeline network look flimsy and not serious.

But the China link is wise. Here is a UPI story on China's economic linkage into the region. Policy strategists in the West ought to be thrilled.