Did Georgia Shoot Down A Russian Plane?
Georgia says there is a fire in a thick, isolated section of forest in the north of the country. That's relevant because the country's interior minister also said a few hours ago that the Georgian military fired on an aircraft that it believed to be Russian. A search may start tomorrow to determine the source of the fire. So far Russia says it is missing no planes. The upshot: If it is a Russian military aircraft, there will probably be a significant escalation of tensions in the already much-strained relationship between the two neighbors.
More recently, Georgia has accused Moscow of a few violations of Georgian air space, including the firing of a missile. Western inspectors traveled to Georgia and backed up its claim about the missile.
Russia has been enraged by the charge, and the western position toward it. But if Georgia actually shot down one of Russia's planes, that could change the complexion of the tension. Russia's Putin stands almost entirely on a nationalistic platform of toughness bordering on belligerence toward the outside world. If it is indeed what the Georgians suggest, that will color his response.
Here is the top of the Reuter's story: Georgian forces fired at a plane they believed was Russian after it violated the Caucasus republic's airspace on Wednesday, a senior interior ministry official said. The incident marks an intensification of a row between the two countries in which Georgia has accused Russian planes of violating its border and of dropping a missile near Tbilisi. Russia called the Georgian statement a provocation. It has not reported any plane missing, and when asked specifically about the Georgian statement an official denied Russian aircraft had violated Georgian airspace. Rest of story.
More recently, Georgia has accused Moscow of a few violations of Georgian air space, including the firing of a missile. Western inspectors traveled to Georgia and backed up its claim about the missile.
Russia has been enraged by the charge, and the western position toward it. But if Georgia actually shot down one of Russia's planes, that could change the complexion of the tension. Russia's Putin stands almost entirely on a nationalistic platform of toughness bordering on belligerence toward the outside world. If it is indeed what the Georgians suggest, that will color his response.
4 Comments:
Now two sides - Georgia and the pro-Russian Abkhaz government - have confirmed a plane went down. Russia denies it was a Russian one.
Steve: do you know answers to these two questions?
1. Can the ownership of the plane be identified beyond doubt based on the study of the debris?
2. If the conflict escalates, can it evolve into a military action? I doubt Russia would invade: that would hurt its standing with the international community too much. Can its proxies - Abkhazia and South Ossetia - launch a fight? Can they really stand up to the Georgian military which has received lots of training and some equipment from the US? Russia can't really do anything to Georgia economically: trade between them is already non-existent.
Hi Peter. Absolutely the identity can be established given an objective analysis. One problem is that objectivity -- since the plane fell in Abkhaz territory, it is probable that no independent outside experts will be permitted to examine it if the Abkhaz and their Russian backers wish it otherwise.
I agree that economic combat is unlikely, for precisely the reasons you state. A military action, conversely, is precisely the danger right now.
I do not share your confidence that Russia would not act, either alone or through its Abkhaz and/or Ossetian proxies. Georgia would not be able to stand up to a Russian-backed assault.
That is why the situation is superlatively more tense now.
The best outcome in my view would be if everyone agreed that they could not identify the origin of the aircraft, and return to the status quo ante of more ordinary animosity.
It looks like the plane went down in the part of Abkhazia that's under Georgian control. The Georgians will be happy to make the debris available to international experts.
Do you not doubt Russian army's fighting ability? Or that of its Ossetian and Abkhaz allies? Recall the confidence exuded by a certain Mr. Gromov who said in December'94 that a paratroop battalion would pacify Grozny within a couple of hours. The reality wasn't very cooperative with the prognosis.
One can argue that in the intervening years Russia has been spending more money on its armed force. But very little, if any, money has been spent on improving the training of the rank and file. Most of the money goes into big projects which, quite coincidentally, offer excellent opportunities for embezzlement: they are long-term projects with vaguely defined objectives. While the mood of the Russian society is far more nationalist, its fighting capabilities are as low as they were thirteen years ago.
I'm afraid Russia might do the crazy thing. An increasing number of the the former Soviet republics are choosing foreign policy and alliances that are independent of Russia. They have even formed a bloc of sorts: GUAM. Relations between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are expanding, driven by the energy economics. That inevitably leads to a greater cooperation in foreign policy matters, if not an outright membership in GUAM. On top of all, the land of Turkmens has a new leader who seems to be working on improving ties with his neighbors. Putin feels threatened by all that. GUAM's strength today is Azerbaijan's oil money. Destabilizing Georgia, the transit route, would diminish that strength and would at least slow down the process of "losing" all those republics.
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