• Steve LeVine covers foreign affairs for Business Week. He previously was correspondent for Central Asia and the Caucasus for The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for 11 years. His first book, The Oil and the Glory, a history of the former Soviet Union through the lens of oil, was published in October 2007. Putin’s Labyrinth, his new book, profiles Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians. The updated paperback was released in April 2009.



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    A Blog on Russia, Energy, the Caspian and
    Beyond

    Monday, August 13, 2007

    Bulletin: Georgia Bombed Itself

    Over the weekend, the top layer of Moscow's leadership got behind the response of middle-ranking Russian officials to the charge that Russia fired a missile into Georgian territory last week. It is another in a series of lost opportunities for Russia to bat away attacks on its international credibility, and show that it is a serious player.

    Here is the first paragraph and backup matter from the AP story: Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov on Saturday accused Georgia of faking the alleged release of a missile from a Russian aircraft into Georgian territory. Ivanov called the allegations a "theatrical show" aimed at preventing a planned meeting of a commission of South Ossetian and Georgian authorities to discuss the decade-long standoff over the region's status. "The authors of this theatrical presentation achieved their main goal — they ruined the meeting," he said. Read rest of story.

    Steve's comment: The Ivanov remark retreats to Russia's traditional defensive refuge -- blame the victim (most recently employed in the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, who some Russian officials accused of poisoning himself along with Andrei Lugovoi, the man Britain charged with murder in the case.). In fact, the evidence so far is almost entirely on Georgia's side. Here Vladimir Socor presents the current state of reporting on the missile incident.

    Moscow's defense might deserve serious scrutiny, except that, coming in this long line of instant Russian denials, it appears reflexive. One wonders why Ivanov -- one of two presumed heirs apparent to President Putin -- is willing to put his name behind such an untenable position, thus playing entirely to the domestic audience but neglecting the international credibility that he may require down the road.
    posted by Steve at

    4 Comments:

    Anonymous Eric said...

    Rusian political elite's intense dislike of Georgia's current leadership is well known. But this wasn't an emotional, knee-jerk reaction to a situation that presented itself. This looks like a pre-planned mission. Jet fighters don't randomly take off and fly in random directions. The pilots are given the objective and navigational data. The choice of munitions is also matched to the objectives. Finally, rules explicitly require the aircraft dispose of munitions in order to be cleared for landing.

    The puzzling question is what was the political objective? Putin & Co. already enjoy sky-high approval ratings. The 2008 election victory is theirs. They really don't need to whip up the nationalistic fervour any further.

    As far as foreign policy and image are concerned, this is a sheer disaster.

    Some observers claimed the purpose was to undermine the upcoming Ossetia-Georgia. But, apparently, those talks were not happening anyway: the Ossetians had refused to travel to Tbilisi.

    One has to give the Russians credit: they know how to puzzle others.

    August 13, 2007 10:55 PM  
    Blogger Steve said...

    Eric, either a political or economic aim. Russia is sending a message to Georgia or a subset of the Georgian political or economic hierarchy, which certainly understands the language. On the outside, we are left as you well say to puzzle through it. Thanks for your latest.

    August 13, 2007 11:26 PM  
    Anonymous Eric said...

    Experts invited by Georgia say plane from Russia
    http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL1514096320070815

    That's a new assertiveness on the part of foreign experts. In similar cases in the past, the foreign experts (OSCE, UN observers) invariably gave in to Russian pressure.

    August 16, 2007 3:15 AM  
    Blogger Steve said...

    Eric, I am floored as well. Staying tuned ...
    Thanks for the comment, Steve

    August 16, 2007 1:18 PM  

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